IU playing more difficult football schedule in 2013

Strength of schedule often correlates with a team’s success.

Generally, the tougher the opponents, the harder it will be to amass wins. So how does this upcoming IU season compare with previous ones in terms of strength of schedule?

Looking at the previous five years of IU’s schedules, definite trends can be determined. In processing all statistics, non-FBS teams were thrown out. Only IU’s Division I-FBS opponents were examined.

For the previous five years of IU football, the Hoosiers’ opponents had an average winning percentage of 54.7 percent from the prior season.

This upcoming year, IU’s opponents had an average winning percentage of 55.7 percent, a full percentage point higher than the previous five-year average.

Of the Hoosiers’ 11 FBS opponents this season, only four did not play in a bowl game last year — Missouri, Penn State, Illinois and Ohio State. Penn State and Ohio State, who finished 8-4 and 12-0, respectively, were both ineligible for bowls because of sanctions levied by the NCAA.

Missouri and Illinois did not qualify for a bowl because of their records, as the Tigers finished 5-7 in their first season in the Southeastern Conference and the Illini went 2-10 and winless in the Big Ten. It was Missouri’s first time missing a bowl since the 2004 season.

Looking more closely at Missouri, the Tigers’ first year in the SEC was a tough one in terms of their schedule.

Some of their opponents included Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, South Carolina and Georgia.

All five of these teams finished the season ranked in the top nine of the AP Poll.

Their schedule was rated the toughest schedule by the Colley Matrix, Jeff Sagarin and Kenneth Massey. All three of these computer rankings are used in the BCS rankings.

Strength of schedule is not the only contributor for measuring a team’s success, but it does play a factor.

But does strength of schedule really matter in IU’s case? Looking at IU’s toughest and weakest schedules the previous five years suggests it does.

In the previous five years examined, IU had the most difficult strength of schedule heading into the 2011 season.

That year, IU’s opponents had an average winning percentage of 56.8 percent, a full two percentage points higher than the five-year average.

The 2011 team finished 1-11 (0-8 in the Big Ten).

To note, this was also the first year of the IU Coach Kevin Wilson era, which was a transition year for the team as a whole, so strength of schedule was just one factor at play with the final record.

Conversely, IU’s easiest strength of schedule in the previous five years was the 2010 season. That season IU’s opponents had an average winning percentage of 51.8 percent, roughly three percentage points below the average.

The 2010 season was IU’s most successful in the previous five years. The
Hoosiers finished the year 5-7, one win away from qualifying for a bowl game.

So it stands to reason if a team had a tougher schedule, the amount of wins would diminish.

In the last five seasons IU has averaged 3.4 wins, and the Hoosiers had, on average, an easier schedule, than this one featuring nine teams that amassed at least six wins to qualify for a bowl game.

For IU to become bowl eligible this season, it will have to break some heavy statistical trends to capture more wins than its 3.4 average the past five years.