Oh, Iowa!

It's been over a month since Newsweek ran its cover reading "The Race Is On," split down the middle by the shining, confident faces of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. That's some impressive foresight, if America's already got our next president narrowed to two candidates.\nFolks, it's early in the game. For nearly two years we'll watch the field of political hopefuls show us real American-style politicking -- yes, the art of waving, signing autographs and holding babies all at the same time. A lot can happen.\nAnd more importantly: Iowa can happen.\nThe infamous Iowa caucus has been an important breakpoint for presidential hopefuls in the past. If history is any source, any "frontrunners" that have already emerged should hold their breath until they emerge from Iowa still in the lead. \nJust ask Howard Dean! Widely construed as the Democratic leader before Iowa in 2004, Dean finished third and went on to perform his devastating "I have a scream" speech. Comedians on late-night TV got ahold of the sound file and it was over, allowing John Kerry to gain the momentum needed to snag the nomination.\nHistory, right? Maybe not. It's possible that Dean's "scream" wasn't much of a scream at all. I worked on the Kerry campaign. Every campaign aide I spoke with who had worked Iowa in person and watched Dean's post-caucus speech received phone calls asking how the "Super Scream" had sounded close-up. Their unanimous response: "What scream?" \nThe scream had been picked up too loudly on the microphone. Cut that sound file out and play it on late-night and we've got ourselves a crazy man. But all the same, the distinct possibility that it could have been simply an out-of-context sound byte that forced the Democratic frontrunner to drop completely out of the race shortly thereafter is an ominous message to candidates: polls are fragile, and Iowa gives them a harsh shaking.\nDean isn't the only one for whom Iowa's been a dynamic force. Kerry's prominence was solidified by his first-place finish, and John Edwards landed a surprising second, eventually moving on to secure the Democratic vice-presidential nomination. On that note, the 1980 Iowa caucus propelled Republican contenders Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush to the forefront -- Reagan finally nosed him out and quickly gave him the vice-presidential spot.\nEven Jimmy Carter broke away from the rest of the Democrats in 1980 with Iowa's help (though his end result for the national race wasn't nearly as pleasant).\nSuccess in Iowa gives candidates momentum, visibility and the narrowed playing field needed to make magic on Super Tuesday, the day in March when most states hold their primaries. For candidates viewed as long shots, it's even more crucial to do well to change pre-existing public opinion.\nBut until then, candidates are only beginning. Clinton's fundraising is unprecedented, and Obama is churning out books faster than Dr. Phil, but the rest of the contenders aren't exactly sitting idly. Until Iowa, everything's up for grabs. Bring on the photo ops.