With the exception of maybe Jordan Hulls, no one has been as solid a rock for IU in the Crean era as Christian Watford. Well, lately that hasn't been the case.
Lost in the hoopla of IU's 78-61 win at Purdue last Saturday was the fact that for the first time in his career, Watford failed to make a shot. The 0-for-7 performance by Watford was overlooked simply because IU rolled. Had IU lost that game though, Watford likely would've been a scapegoat.
Last Saturday was rock bottom for a trend that has continued in the past month for Watford. Since his 25-point outburst in IU's 73-71 win against Michigan on Jan. 5, Watford has yet to make more than four shots in a game. His numbers might not show a significant decline because he has averaged 9.8 points per game during that stretch, largely thanks to his free-throw shooting ability.
But Watford is shooting a mere 32 percent (24-of-76) during that nine-game stretch. Three-point shooting hasn't ignited Watford either, shooting 31 percent (10-of-32) during the stretch, including 0-of-8 in his last three games.
Despite the rough shooting stretch, Watford is still shooting the same 42.2 percent from the field he shot a season ago when he led IU with 16 points per game.
So what's wrong with Watford?
To put it simply, Watford isn't shooting high-percentage shots.
That might sound like an obvious solution given his recent struggles but it makes sense. Watford has seen a slew of top-notch Big Ten defenders that have made him work for every point he's gotten.
Take for example, the Michigan game last Wednesday. On Watford's first two offensive possessions, he got the ball on the perimeter with Michigan's Zack Novak on him. Novak, who is easily the Wolverines best defender, was giving up 4-5 inches on Watford.
What did Watford do?
He stared down the significantly smaller Novak, tried to beat him off the dribble, realized he wasn't quick enough, backed off and forced up an out-of-rhythm three. The second time, Watford repeated steps one, two and three but wisely elected to pass it off.
Watford couldn't get in rhythm all night so he turned his efforts to the defensive side of the ball where he did a fantastic job shutting down Michigan's Tim Hardaway, Jr. in the second half. Hardaway gassed Watford's legs and made him all but useless offensively for the rest of the game.
It's been no secret that Watford isn't exactly conditioned like Michael Phelps. When he's already gassed after working so hard to get into the flow of the game, Watford isn't a likely candidate to catch fire late.
We saw a similar trend in the Purdue game. Purdue Coach Matt Painter stuck the gritty, yet undersized D.J. Byrd on Watford. Byrd, like Novak, gave up several inches but more than made up for it with his quickness. Countless times, Watford put the ball on the floor recognizing his physical advantage, only to be frustrated with the tenacity of a smaller defender.
Teams are realizing that when Watford puts the ball on the floor, he forces the action. Watford is used to floating around the perimeter and either staying outside or working inside when he gets the ball. These smaller defenders exploit Watford's sub-par ball handling skills and get in his head early.
The best way for Watford to rid of this trend is to start off on the block. If he gets the ball deep in the post, he either has a much higher-percentage shot close to the basket or he forces a double team which leaves Cody Zeller open on the weak side.
Rough shooting stretches are expected, even out of upperclassmen like Watford. The guy is already an IU legend for some lucky shot he hit to give No. 1 Kentucky its only loss. But Watford can improve significantly in this last stretch of the regular season. He's lucky he's 6-foot-9 and score from virtually anywhere on the floor. But the Hoosiers need him to score at other places than just the free-throw line if they want to dance past the first round in March.
