Most recent bracketology talk in Bloomington has focused on Sesame Street references and what type of trash can IU basketball head coach Archie Miller thinks ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi lives in. However, there are actually other NCAA Tournament seeding discussions outside of whether or not the Hoosiers can secure a bid for the first time since 2016.
A few weeks ago, the one seeds were virtually locked up. Between Nov. 30 and Feb. 21, the University of Kansas, Baylor University, Gonzaga University and San Diego State University had a combined record of 72-2. Kansas had both of the losses.
One was against another member of the “Big Four” — Baylor. The other was a one-point loss at a Villanova University team that won a share of the Big East regular season title.
The four schools were ranked in the top four of the AP poll and in the NET evaluation tool. It was only a matter of when, not if, the quartet of universities would sit on the one line on Selection Sunday.
But in the last two-plus weeks, a lot has changed. It started on Feb. 22. Kansas beat Baylor in its rematch, Gonzaga fell to Brigham Young University and SDSU lost its first game of the campaign against a bad University Nevada-Las Vegas squad.
Since then, Kansas has continued to steamroll virtually everyone in sight, becoming the likely top seed in the field. Gonzaga has bounced back and seemed to dismiss the BYU defeat as a one-time hiccup on the road to a top-15 team.
But Baylor and San Diego State have both struggled. Starting with the Kansas loss, Baylor dropped three of its last five games. The Bears also needed overtime to escape Texas Tech University.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs barely beat bad Colorado State University at home and trailed an even worse United States Air Force Academy with 15 minutes to go Friday. SDSU also blew a 16-point lead to Utah State University in Saturday’s Mountain West Conference Championship game, and lost on Sam Merrill’s game winner.
The Bears and Aztecs slides have opened up the possibility for one, or even both teams from possibly falling from the one line. While there are not many teams in college basketball that have taken advantage of the opportunity to snag a one seed, the University of Dayton — yes, Archie Miller’s former school — has a 29-2 record and are third in NET. The Flyers also boast a national player of the year candidate in Obi Toppen, and a great core of players surround him.
However, Dayton or SDSU are both unlikely to be seeded ahead of Baylor on the committee's S curve. That’s mainly because Baylor just has more quality wins than the Aztecs or Flyers. Baylor owns an 11-2 Quadrant 1 record. Dayton and San Diego State only have nine combined Quadrant 1 victories. The Bears simply have better and more quality wins.
The conventional argument then becomes Dayton or San Diego State for the final one seed. However, Florida State University is the one other team that has an outside shot to steal a spot on the top line. The Seminoles already have six Quadrant 1 wins, including a pair of double digit victories over the University of Louisville, who is ranked eighth in NET.
More importantly though, Florida State has the best chance of the three schools to improve its résumé. Playing in the Atlantic Coast Conference, FSU could potentially pick up two more signature wins if it wins the ACC Tournament by beating any combination of Duke University, Louisville and the University of Virginia.
Meanwhile, Dayton still has to play in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, and even if it wins the title, its résumé will look roughly the same. San Diego State has already completed its conference tournament, so the team is obviously set in stone record wise until the bracket is released.
At this stage, Dayton would be the likely front runner for the final one seed with the A-10 tournament title. If FSU wins the ACC Tournament, it could become a virtual toss-up between those two teams. San Diego State — undefeated just two-plus weeks ago — could possibly end up staying home as the two seed in the West Regional in nearby Los Angeles, instead of being shipped across the country as the top seed in the East.
