At this point in the Republican primary season, things are getting down to the wire. The next primary showdowns are happening April 1 in North Dakota and April 5 in Wisconsin.
With Donald Trump already having 735 delegates, and only needing 1,237 to win, it is now or never in the quest to stop Trump. Adding another 70 delegates to Trump’s total leaves him only needing 431 delegates from the remaining 889.
North Dakota has 28 delegates up for grabs, and Wisconsin has 42.
In Wisconsin 18 delegates go to the statewide winner, and 24 are pledged to the winner in each of the state’s eight congressional districts.
To make matters worse, Trump is a 26-point favorite in his home state of New York, which will award its 95 delegates on a proportional basis April 19. This further adds a large number of delegates to Trump’s total.
If the other candidates, and Republican electorate, want to stop Trump from winning the Republican nomination outright, they must consolidate behind either Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas or Gov. John Kasich R-Ohio.
Numerous anti-Trump groups are entering Wisconsin, and are campaigning for both Cruz and Kasich to help derail the Trump campaign.
Former GOP presidential nominee and current Wisconsin governor, Scott Walker, endorsed Cruz on Tuesday, which should add serious momentum for Cruz. In his endorsement announcement, he claimed that Kasich had no chance at gaining the nomination, and that it was time for GOP voters to consolidate around Cruz.
Cruz and Kasich don’t really have a path to the nomination at this point. Kasich is even mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination outright.
Upon taking a look at recent poll data for the Wisconsin race, it becomes clear Trump and Cruz are essentially locked in a dead heat. According to RealClearPolitics.com’s aggregated poll data, Cruz leads the state by less than a percentage point. In a winner take all situation, this is yet another instance in which every vote counts.
If Trump is unsuccessful in North Dakota and Wisconsin, his path to winning the nomination outright will have hit a serious roadblock. A contested or brokered convention could hinge on these two states.
Although a contested or brokered convention is the ideal situation for anti-Trump Republicans and the party establishment, it may not prevent Trump from becoming the nominee.
As many GOP voters have become progressively anti-establishment, a selection of anyone other than Trump would enrage the pro-Trump faction within the party.
To add to this conundrum, Trump rescinded his promise to back the eventual Republican nominee Tuesday.
As a result, this election could be entering a new phase if Trump fails to win in North Dakota and Wisconsin. The possibility of Trump running as a third-party nominee is very real if he somehow doesn’t win the GOP nomination.
After next Tuesday, we will have a much better idea of how the GOP primary season will pan out.
ttfitzpa@indiana.edu
@tfitzwrites
