An unlikely front-runner

Poor Mitt Romney, all the money disclosed on his tax returns can’t buy him a compelling public personal.

For months, six other candidates were tripping over each other to reach second place. Mitt, the presumed front-runner, stayed in the background with consistent polling between 20 and 25 percent.

But now the field is thinning, and fewer competitors means more disapproval of Romney. The closer Romney gets to the nomination, the more difficult things become.

This is especially strange because the most viable and popular candidates are no longer in the race. Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry were the darlings of the Republican establishment, moderates and the Tea Party, respectively.

Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum? Two political has-beens whose best days were behind them.

So why is Mitt having such trouble defeating the weakest challengers? His problem is one of public image and perception more than substance. By sheer chance, the three challengers left in the race are a nightmare for the Romney campaign.

Ron Paul, Gingrich and Santorum each exploit Romney’s weaknesses while largely staying out of each other’s way. None of these candidates has broad support, but all draw different constituencies away from the front-runner.

Social conservatives who prefer principled defeat to pragmatic victory stubbornly vote Santorum. A former blue state governor, Romney is far less appealing on issues such as abortion and gay marriage.

War weary, budget conscious libertarians vote for Ron Paul. Proto-Obamacare in Massachusetts is too much for small government conservatives.

Anti-Obama Republicans prefer Gingrich’s over-the-top rhetorical flourishes to Romney’s cautious tone. Newt exudes confidence. The first big applause line in his moon colony proposal began, “By the end of my second term.”

Never mind that none of these candidates represents more than a fraction of the Republican primary electorate. There is just enough voter dissatisfaction to cost Romney the nomination. Or at least weaken his campaign just before the convention.

However, this apparent disaster for Romney is an important part of the primary process.

Romney is being forced to confront topics and constituencies that he would much rather ignore. Attacks by Gingrich and Paul reveal how well or how poorly Mitt can defend his corporate record.

By the end of the primaries, Romney will show whether he is capable of addressing the issues of wealth and capitalism.

American politics often feels inevitable; rich, well-connected individuals end up in positions of power because of their name or their influence rather than merit.

The Republican primaries have compelled a rich, powerful man to explain his corporate activities, release his tax forms and actually work for his political goal. By Forcing Romney to fight for the nomination, even Newt Gingrich is providing a valuable public service.

­— jzsoldos@indiana.edu