Is Jordan Hulls the player IU wants on the court? Which big man provides the best minutes?
I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season. Here's part two of four of my look inside IU's box score. (Here's Part I on player efficiency).
Today, we will look at player plus/minus. This stat examines team performance while a particular player is on the court. If Jordan Hulls enters the game when the score is tied 40-40 and leaves the game five minutes later with IU leading 47-42, Hulls' plus/minus is +5. Add up all substitutions from all games, and you get collective plus/minus numbers for all the players.
For this post, I just looked at the past five games (Maryland, Pitt, UK, NCCU and Loyola) for two reasons. 1) These recent games had "close" moments (i.e. it wasn't a blowout from start-to-finish for either team) - close games (or games that were close for awhile) give a more accurate picture of plus/minus. Blowouts can skew numbers. 2) It takes forever to calculate plus/minus.
The positive of the plus/minus stat - individual stats don't matter. In the above example, Hulls would not need to record a single individual stat (point, rebound, etc.) to contribute to the plus/minus. Oftentimes you hear that a particular player's worth can't be measured in the box score, but this is one stat that can clarify just how much a player provides to the team.
The negative - a player can be playing well, while the other four on the court are struggling. This is particularly true when players play in a particular lineup. Let's say a particular backup usually plays with the rest of the starters - his plus/minus will probably be decent. On the other hand, if a player usually only gets in the game when just backups are playing, his plus/minus won't be as good.
Anyways, on to the stats breakdown. Just follow the jump.
Player +/- (Past five games)
- Maurice Creek (+20)
- Jordan Hulls (+17)
- Christian Watford (+7)
- Devan Dumes (+3)
- Derek Elston (+3)
- Bawa Muniru (Even)
- Steven Gambles (-1)
- Kory Barnett (-2)
- Bobby Capobianco (-4)
- Brett Finkelmeier (-4)
- Jeremiah Rivers (-4)
- Daniel Moore (-7)
- Tom Pritchard (-11)
- Tijan Jobe (-12)
- Verdell Jones (-13)
Update: Plus/minus (First 12 games)
I finished calculating the +/- for all games through Loyola. Here are the numbers from the first 12 games.
- Maurice Creek (+40)
- Christian Watford (+31)
- Verdell Jones (+29)
- Derek Elston (+25)
- Jeremiah Rivers (+24)
- Jordan Hulls (+19)
- Bobby Capobianco (+10)
- Tom Pritchard (+10)
- Matt Roth (+9)
- Tijan Jobe (+2)
- Steven Gambles (-8)
- Kory Barnett (-9)
- Devan Dumes (-12)
- Daniel Moore (-12)
- Brett Finkelmeier (-14)
- Bawa Muniru (-17)
Observations
Remember, IU went 2-3 in these games (including double digit losses to Maryland and UK), so the numbers lean into the negative.
Muniru, Gambles, Barnett, and Finkelmeier are all players who get very few minutes, so their plus/minus does not stray far from zero.
Hulls jumps to second because he had a team-best +6 against Loyola (with a -5 in the first half and +11 in the second. Watford, on the other hand, had a -21 for the game, since he was not in the game during IU's second-half run). Hulls also had a +21 against NCCU and only -5 against UK.
Pritchard posted a -34 for the Maryland, Pitt and UK games. After moving to the bench, he's posted a +23 in the past two games for his -11 total over five games.
Verdell Jones is in last because he had the lowest mark against Maryland (-14) and did not have a significant contribution against NCCU (+6), while six IU players in that game posted a double-digit positive +/- number.
Despite the missed free throws, Capobianco had the team's highest +/- against UK at +9.
Contrasts
Each game can provide big contrasts between the first and last player in the +/- category.
- Maryland - Best: Watford (Even); Worst: Jones (-14)
- Pitt - Best: Dumes (+16); Worst: Creek (-4)
- UK - Best: Capobianco (+9); Worst: Pritchard (-20)
- NCCU - Best: Creek (+31); Worst: Jobe and Finkelmeier (-4)
- Loyola - Best: Hulls (+6); Worst: Watford (-21)
Conclusions
From an individual standpoint, Hulls might be providing the most effective minutes in the past five games, considering he is 6th on the team in minutes (having just passed Elston and Dumes in minutes in the Loyola game).
Capobianco is giving good minutes in his limited role off the bench. In a similar limited role, Tijan Jobe is struggling.
Maurice Creek weathered a poor game against Loyola to remain the team's best in +/- over the five games - also, once again, stating his case as the definitive best player on the team.
Further
Using the same numbers, part three of my look at IU's box score will examine which five-man lineup has been the most effective during the past five games. Expect that to come out after the Bryant game. Part four will take a brief look at opponents' numbers to see what types of teams IU plays well against.
If you are interested in looking at the numbers yourself (or to check my numbers), feel free to send me an e-mail and I'll give you the spreadsheet. (e-mail: nmhart@indiana.edu)
