Well. That could have gone better.
Last week, I cautioned against speaking too highly of Indiana football in the event it got embarrassed in its season opener in Iowa City, Iowa. When the Hawkeyes trounced the Hoosiers 34-6 Saturday, I — an entirely unbiased sports journalist who happens to go to Indiana University — felt nothing but vindication.
Watch out, experts, the 47,499,238th smartest college football fan in America is coming for your crowns.
Truthfully, I thought the Hoosiers’ propensity for explosive plays gave them a distinct edge over the slow and steady Hawkeyes. However, I was also keenly aware of Indiana’s equally potent propensity to completely melt down in big games.
So, where does that leave the Hoosiers?
Before we delve into the analysis, it’s probably worth putting a few things in perspective. For example, do you remember what the biggest question around Indiana’s football season was at this time last year? Whether or not it would exist.
The fact the Hoosiers were expected to compete in a top-25 week one matchup is a big deal in and of itself. Nevertheless, I realize that doesn’t soften the blow of a four-touchdown drubbing in the first game of the season.
We then must evaluate Indiana’s lackluster, occasionally pitiful outing versus Iowa and decide how much of it we can extrapolate throughout the rest of the schedule.
Will 2021 be the year Indiana claims the Big Ten title and challenges for a playoff spot? Almost certainly not. Even if the Hoosiers’ showing in week one is an extreme outlier, I need to see some faint suggestion of offensive cohesion to believe a team is a championship contender.
On the other hand, the fear Indiana will regress to the ineptitude of the past seems dramatic. The Hoosiers have plenty of talent on their roster, and few coaches rally talent like Tom Allen.
Can Allen reorganize his athletes and give them back the confidence necessary to compete with the likes of No. 3 Ohio State, No. 11 Penn State or the No. 7 University of Cincinnati? I’m inclined to say yes for each of those individual instances. Whether or not I think he can do that for all three games is another matter.
Like any Reddit-perusing, joke-recycling college football fan will tell you, the best part about this sport is the chaos. The reason schools like the University of Alabama dominate year after year, aside from massive recruiting and monetary advantages, is because it is really, really hard to go four months without doing something stupid. These are teams comprised primarily of 18- to 22-year-old men, so any squad that can minimize its blunders is bound to shine.
For Indiana to reach the height of its expectations, not only would it have to pull off a substantial upset monthly but also manage the ostensibly inferior opponents in between. That’s beyond difficult.
By my estimation, the Hoosiers maintain a rather solid defense. Within the past year, I’ve seen Indiana break apart Ohio State’s secondary like a Kit Kat bar. More recently, however, I’ve seen it operate with all the speed and tenacity of a sloth rolling uphill. If the Hoosiers can keep to the first end of that spectrum, I genuinely believe they can beat any team on their schedule.
I have no idea how well junior quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will perform next week. Considering he’ll be throwing against the University of Idaho, I’m assuming the answer is better than Saturday. There is a distinct possibility last week’s gameis the worst Penix has ever or will ever play.
Injuries are always a concern for the third-year starter, but I don’t have the statistical acumen to factor the tensile strength of Penix’s ligaments into my projections of his passing efficiency. For now, I can only set aside the outliers and await more data.
If you’re still torn up about Saturday’s loss, I get it. It simply isn’t fun to see your team lose in humiliating fashion when the hype is this high. I understand feeling downtrodden right now, but that shouldn’t keep you from cheering on the school you love.
If Indiana’s athletes are going to lace up their cleats and strap on their pads for 60 minutes of brutality and physical exhaustion, surely you too can psych yourself up to possibly get hurt all over again.
