The Indiana primary election is May 3 and the entire nation will be watching what happens on the Republican side of the aisle.
As the primary season goes down to the wire, Ted Cruz and John Kasich are battling to stop Donald Trump from gaining the Republican nomination outright.
With Trump having just won New York, he is all but assured victory in larger delegate states like Pennsylvania, which will bring him very close to the magic number of 1,237.
However, Indiana could be a make or break for the Trump campaign.
The 57 delegates up for grabs can prove decisive for Trump if he can win all of the delegates assigned to the nine congressional districts, as well as the winner take all delegates.
A clean sweep of Indiana makes Trump’s path to the nomination very clear.
Unfortunately, the Indiana primary is extremely hard to predict.
There has not been a single poll conducted throughout the state due to the Indiana ban on automated polling.
This will significantly confound any predictions that people may have.
Another interesting factor at play in the Indiana primary is that it is an open primary, meaning a voter must request either a Democrat or Republican ballot. This means that a person who’s a registered Democrat can still vote against Trump if they so desire.
Indiana should be a strong state for Trump, demographically speaking. However, the same can be said for Cruz. On the flipside, Indiana isn’t a particularly strong state for the Kasich campaign.
In other states similar to Indiana, Marco Rubio voters have sweepingly voted in favor of Cruz, which may end up giving him a slight edge, especially with urban, conservative voters in Indianapolis at play.
Aside from the heated presidential nomination, there is still a Republican Senate primary and a 9th congressional district primary.
In the Senate primary, Congressman Todd Young, R-9th District, squares off against Congressman Marlin Stutzman, R-3rd District.
I have already voiced my support for Young in an earlier column.
The 9th District Congressional primary to fill Young’s seat is contested between Greg Zoeller, the state attorney general, State Senators Erin Houchin and Brent Waltz, Robert Hall, a lean manufacturing consultant, and businessman Trey Hollingsworth.
One thing is certain: these primary elections have implications at home and in Washington, D.C.
In the presidential election, Trump’s charge toward the nomination can be halted if he’s defeated.
With significant anti-Trump factions arising in the Republican Party, the Indiana primary will serve as one of the final battles if either Kasich — unlikely as it may be — or Cruz are the victor.
In the Senate and House primaries, Hoosiers won’t have to worry about sending true conservatives to square off against the Democrats come November.
These primaries will be fun to watch, considering I’ve met every candidate running for both the Congressional and Senate nomination, and I’ve been following these races since August.
I cannot wait to see what happens in two weeks’ time.
staranyi@indiana.edu
