Primary season is well underway, and it’s about to heat up.
On March 1, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia all have Republican primaries.
This single day has astronomical implications for all of the Republican candidates that remain in the field.
According to RealClearPolitics.com, Donald Trump leads the aggregate GOP nomination polls by 13.2 percent ahead of runner-up Sen. Ted Cruz. This is a significant lead going into the 11 primaries.
Dr. Ben Carson, Gov. John Kasich, Sen. Marco Rubio, Cruz and Trump will all be hoping for a strong showing at the polls, as they move forward with their respective campaigns.
It is my opinion that while Super Tuesday is of serious importance for all candidates, it is more so for Cruz and Rubio.
Cruz has shaped his campaign strategy around a strong showing on Super Tuesday. Currently, he leads in his home state of Texas; however he ranges anywhere from second to fourth in all other states.
After a come-from-behind victory in the Iowa Caucus, it’s essential for the Cruz campaign to exceed expectations, and reaffirm the belief that he is a serious contender in the election.
Rubio, on the other hand, has some serious ground to make up in this race.
After a stronger showing than expected in Iowa, the Rubio campaign stuttered in New Hampshire as a result of his poor debate showing. Super Tuesday may be the day Rubio proves what people have thought all along: Rubio is the GOP establishment’s best counter to Trump.
A poor showing from Cruz will also be a victory for Rubio campaign. Rubio lacks delegates, and on Super Tuesday it is essential Rubio picks up several delegates to begin challenging both Trump and Cruz.
For the Kasich campaign, Super Tuesday is a do or die day: if he fails to win any states, or fails to place higher than fourth in major states, it could spell doom for his presidential hopes.
The same goes for Carson’s campaign, as it has sputtered in recent weeks.
The Trump campaign enters Super Tuesday as the front runner for the GOP nominee, and they will hope to build on their successes in both New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Super Tuesday primaries award delegates proportionately, which bodes well for all candidates except Trump.
One thing is certain: the Super Tuesday primaries will have significant effects on the remainder of the race.
With every candidate needing to exceed expectations, the cut-throat nature of the election will surely see one or more candidates drop out as a result of poor or average showings.
With 11 primaries on the same day, it will pose a significant tactical and logistical challenge for all of the candidates.
After Super Tuesday, the electorate will have a much better idea of who the Republican nominee will or won’t be. Regardless of outcome, the implications of Super Tuesday are certainly evident.
I couldn’t be more excited to see how Super Tuesday transpires.
staranyi@indiana.edu
