When the thought of a perfect season in the NFL is brought up, it’s easy to roll your eyes and laugh at the ones who believe in this infeasible notion.
Maybe it’s because the 1972 Miami Dolphins are the only team in NFL history to accomplish a perfect season.
Or perhaps the ’72 perfect season belongs in the category with Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hit streak or Wayne Gretzky’s 2,857 career points: an untouchable record.
But for the first time in NFL history, after the conclusion of week nine, there are three teams left with the chance to do the seemingly impossible.
So let’s recap on how these three teams have gotten to this point and break down the chances each team has at actually running the table.
Panthers
I think it’s fair to say the Carolina Panthers are the most surprising of the remaining undefeated teams, just one year after finishing 7-8-1. But with a top-ranked defense with players like Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Josh Norman, this team will always find itself in games in the fourth quarter. Which leads to Carolina’s quarterback Cam Newton, who is picking apart defenses by throwing and running the ball. Twenty-nine times throughout his career, including five times this season, Newton has thrown and run the ball for a touchdown in the same game, which puts him just two games behind Steve Young who holds the record with 31.
Carolina’s last eight opponents have a .456 winning percentage, lowest of the remaining three undefeated teams, but are given the lowest chance to go undefeated with just 2.1 percent, according to Massey-Peabody Analytics. This is probably because the Panthers still have to play their division rival Atlanta Falcons (6-3) twice, and the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, during which Tony Romo will be back in play. If Carolina can win at least one against the Falcons, there is no reason as to why this team can’t win 14 games and have home-field advantage through the NFC Championship.
Bengals
The Bengals are off to their best in franchise history (8-0), and a lot of their success is heavily credited to the play of their quarterback Andy Dalton, who entered this season with many questions surrounding his ability to win. He has responded well by throwing 18 touchdowns and only four interceptions so far this season, while having a 111 passer rating, the second highest amongst quarterbacks with at least 10 throwing attempts. If he can continue to produce at high levels, look for him and the Bengals to not only win a playoff game, with 0-4 the last four seasons, but make a run at the Super Bowl.
The eight upcoming opponents for the Bengals have a combined .478 winning percentage, which gives them a 3.7 percent chance of finishing the season 16-0, according to Massey-Peabody Analytics. Although having the second-best chance out of the remaining three undefeated teams, the Bengals may receive their first loss sooner than the rest. In Week 11, the Bengals have a 62 percent chance of losing to Arizona, the toughest remaining game for any of the three teams. If the Bengals can find a way to beat the Cardinals in Arizona next week, they should have no trouble running the table until they meet up with the Denver Broncos in Week 16.
Patriots
If there is no other player like Newton on the planet, then there is no other player like Brady in the galaxy. The 38-year-old quarterback, who seems to be playing with a personal vendetta, is having one of the best seasons of his career. So far Brady has thrown 22 touchdowns, rushing for two more, and only has two interceptions. With Brady putting up video game-type numbers, and a top-ten ranked defense getting him the ball back, the Patriots may be looking at another shot at perfection.
Their remaining schedule features teams with a combined .508 winning percentage. Despite playing a tougher schedule the rest of the way, the Patriots are favored in every single matchup going forward. New England’s lowest chances of victory come in Week 12 against the Broncos, where they still have a 60 percent chance of winning. As of now, according to Massey-Peabody Analytics, the Patriots have a 13.5 percent chance of being perfect at the end of the season.
Many teams have come close to achieving an undefeated regular season with the last team being the 2007 Patriots. That team actually went on to become the first team to start 18-0, but when failing to win the Super Bowl against the New York Giants in what is considered to be one of the greatest upsets in sports history, they failed to complete a perfect season.
Nevertheless, there is still a lot of football to play, and theoretically all three of these teams can finish the regular season undefeated. But you might have a better chance at winning the lottery than seeing three undefeated regular seasons in the same calendar year. The chances of that happening are low.
Although it would be cool to have an undefeated regular season, I can almost guarantee all of these teams have one common goal: to go undefeated after Week 17.
micbhern@indiana.edu
