IU’s nonconference season was all over the place.
It began first and foremost with the news of sophomore forward Devin Davis suffering a severe head injury when he was struck by a car driven by freshman forward Emmitt Holt. Then came the suspensions of sophomore Stanford Robinson and Troy Williams for a team violation and a suspension for Holt for his involvement in the accident.
But then came the basketball.
Through 13 nonconference games, IU proved its offense is good. Maybe great. The Hoosiers’ 86.4 points per game average ranks No. 4 in the nation.
The defense also proved to be bad. Maybe awful. The Hoosiers allow 72.1 points per game, ranking No. 294 in the nation.
How those numbers will change as the Big Ten season progresses remains to be seen. But before the Big Ten season kicks off at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday against Nebraska, let’s take a look at five of the defining numbers of IU’s nonconference season heading into the Big Ten schedule.
10-3 - overall record
IU’s nonconference record. It is, by conference measures, very average.
The Hoosiers’ .769 winning percentage slotted them in sixth place in the conference, trailing Maryland, Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State and Minnesota but firmly ahead of everyone else, including Michigan State, Iowa and Michigan.
A team can’t clinch an at-large bid with its performance in the nonconference season, but it can certainly lose it.
The Hoosiers have picked up résumé-boosting wins against then-No. 23 Butler, then-No. 22 SMU and Pittsburgh that show promise. But then there’s the 20-point loss to No. 5 Louisville and a Nov. 24 loss to Eastern Washington. Then last weekend’s overtime loss to Georgetown.
The loss to Eastern Washington doesn’t look particularly good at home, but the Eagles are 9-4.
IU was one more basket away from beating Georgetown in regulation, and IU led Louisville in the second half before collapsing.
All in all, there were good wins and there were bad losses. But luckily for IU, it seems just about every team outside of Kentucky has had both.
6 - total points outscored by Georgetown and Eastern Washington
One of the area’s that hurt IU last season was its ability—or lack thereof—to win in close games. Through the nonconference, IU has dropped two such games by a combined six points.
IU Coach Tom Crean and his players both have no firm reason for this. Last year, IU was 3-5 in conference games decided by two possessions or less. That’s why Crean likes to say his team was two made 3-pointers more per game away from being near the best in the Big Ten.
Regardless, that was then and this is now. IU is 1-2 in games decided by two possessions or less.
The Big Ten will feature tight games, no doubt. How IU will respond in those games remains to be seen.
No. 319 - IU’s strength of schedule ranking by Ken Pomeroy
IU assistant coach Chuck Martin and basketball statistics guru Ken Pomeroy disagree when it comes to IU’s strength of schedule.
Pomeroy ranks the Hoosiers’ schedule as the 319th hardest in the nation. Simplified, the nonconference schedule was easy.
Martin disagrees.
“I think Coach Crean did a great job of challenging this particular team with the nonconference schedule,” Martin said. “I’m not sure if any team in the country has had as tough a nonconference schedule as we have.”
If Martin’s comments say anything, it’s that the coaching staff believes IU’s nonconference schedule has adequately prepared the Hoosiers for the Big Ten, regardless of what projections might say.
13. 8 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.87 blocks per game
This is the combined production from junior forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea and freshman forward Emmitt Holt. The two have been IU’s No. 1 and No. 2 options in the post, respectively, this year.
Holt has mostly been a pleasant surprise for Crean. IU had no clear backup option after sophomore forward Devin Davis was injured, but Holt has averaged 5.0 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game.
Mosquera-Perea wanted to make a significant jump this season, and in ways, he has. But it has been too inconsistent for both his own liking and Crean’s.
His 7.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.76 blocks per game are all career highs for him now that he is averaging 22.7 minutes per game, but against some weak teams.
Even without a definite center option, IU ranks No. 10 in the country in offensive efficiency, according to Pomeroy’s rankings. But still, Mosquera-Perea will be leaned upon. IU has also found a way to rebound despite a lack of size, outrebounding opponents in its last four games.
Against Eastern Washington, Mosquera-Perea was outplayed by 6-foot-8 center Venky Jois, who scored 20 points and grabbed 14 rebounds. Similar numbers came out of Louisville’s Montrezl Harrell and Georgetown’s Joshua Smith, even when Smith battled foul trouble.
IU has mostly worked around its lack of height in the post thus far, but the Big Ten is full of talented big men, highlighted by Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky, Maryland’s Jake Layman and Purdue’s A.J. Hammons, among others that will certainly be waiting for both Mosquera-Pera and Holt.
.5643 - Big Ten conference’s RPI
It has been a relatively down year for the Big Ten conference, even with the additions of Maryland and Rutgers.
The Big Ten’s RPI ranking is No. 5 among conferences, trailing the Big 12, Big East, SEC and ACC.
Losses to St. John's (beat Minnesota by 9), Northern Iowa (beat Northwestern by 19) and Michigan’s back-to-back losses to the New Jersey Institute of Technology and Eastern Michigan will do that. Even Wisconsin, widely regarded as the top team in the Big Ten, lost by 10 to Duke.
But the Big Ten season does bring an opportunity for IU to add a few signature wins. With the Big Ten’s struggles, the conference is mostly regarded as wide open apart from Wisconsin at the top, just as it was at Big Ten Media Day earlier this year.
If IU were to just go .500 in the conference, that puts the Hoosiers up to 19 wins. That, historically, puts IU on, in or near the NCAA Tournament bubble. Based on the season so far, it’s hard to predict if that happens.
But with the Big Ten season starting and a New Year beginning, IU will soon find out. Pomeroy projects IU to lose its first three games to Nebraska, Michigan State and Ohio State by a combined 10 points.
