Chicago Cubs General Manager Theo Epstein is trying to be a better Billy Beane than Billy Beane.
And in the process, he is once again trying to change the way major league front offices operate.
The most fascinating part about the Oakland Athletics-Cubs trade is the unconventional risk taken by both teams.
It’s no secret Oakland Athletics General Manager Beane and Epstein both see baseball differently than conventional general managers, but Epstein is trying to reinvent what Beane reinvented just years ago.
The Oakland A’s acquired Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Cubs, a pair of pitchers who could very easily elevate the A’s to a World Series team. Now the A’s have one of the most potent pitching staffs in baseball.
For the A’s, this trade is somewhat conventional wisdom, buying just enough undervalued talent to make them a title contender.
But what Epstein has in mind is far more interesting. The supposed savior of the Chicago Cubs acquired top-hitting prospects Addison Russell — considered to be a top-five prospect by nearly every baseball player analysis website — and the A’s second-highest-rated prospect Billy McKinney.
For years, teams have fought and clawed to stockpile young pitchers through the draft with the idea that good pitching trumps a good bat.
Epstein has done the exact opposite, acquiring just about every highly touted hitter imaginable regardless of position.
The theory behind Epstein’s strategy is that he has identified a “Moneyball” market inefficiency in premium hitters.
Since the steroid-era of baseball is finally weeding itself out, pitchers have been dominant in recent history with the average runs scored per game dropping every year since 2006, with the exception of a slight increase in 2012.
Since 2000, the average runs scored per game has dropped by an entire run.
Epstein has combated the lack of scoring by attempting to acquire almost every single premium hitting prospect. Despite having all-star shortstop Starlin Castro, the Cubs have drafted Javier Baez and acquired Russell.
The Cubs also passed on pitching in the past two drafts, opting to go with Kris Bryant and former IU slugger Kyle Schwarber.
These picks were made even though the Cubs already had highly touted hitters Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, Mike Olt and Anthony Rizzo in the system.
Epstein obviously sees how often pitchers get hurt. He has watched as free agency causes pitchers to travel across the nation nearly every offseason.
Epstein seems perfectly content to build a lineup of dangerous hitters and then worry about buying above average pitching later, the reverse of what most front offices would do.
Since arriving in Chicago, Epstein has spent his days adding nearly every above average hitter he can get his hands on under contract while letting all-star pitching walk.
It’s no secret, the Chicago Cubs have spent a good part of the past century as the joke of Major League ?Baseball.
Epstein is trying to change that and is doing so in an unconventional way.
It might not come to fruition for three years or so — conveniently the time it will take to renovate Wrigley Field — but this could be the move Cubs fans will remember as finally bringing a World Series trophy to the friendly confines of Wrigley.
sbeishui@indiana.edu
