Ind. economy shows positive signs in Oct.

Indiana’s economy seems to be regaining a bit of steam after almost six months of decline, according to the Leading Index for Indiana, a project of the Indiana Business Research Center.

The index tracks changes in Indiana’s economy by measuring five components that are key to Indiana’s three biggest industries — transportation, manufacturing and real estate. It assigns a numerical value after measuring these components. The higher the value, the better the position of Indiana’s economy.

The index saw an increase to 96.9 in October, close to the post-financial crisis high of 97.05 that was measured in January of this year.

After the January high, the index had tapered off, oscillating between lukewarm growth and marginal decreases.

There were several different things that drove the increase, according to the center.

Consumer confidence in the housing market increased for the second consecutive month to its highest level since 2010, the Dow Jones Transportation Average surged in October and auto sales in October rose 7 percent from the 2010 level.

Even if Indiana’s economy seemed to make a small comeback in October, the center cautioned that the rise in the index was not significant enough to indicate Indiana’s economy is going to be in good shape in the long run.

To the contrary, the center indicated in its monthly report that next year’s economic forecast is likely to model 2011’s: oscillating between tepid growth and marginal decreases without ever fully recovering. Indiana’s economic growth in 2012 is likely to be underwhelming, the report indicated.

The center has been publishing monthly reports based on the index since 1997. The index reached a peak of 103.89 in April 2006 and hit its lowest point of 94.63 in February of 2009, during the height of the recent financial crisis.

Since the index’s lowpoint, its value has gained some ground but then started to make small jumps up and down.

The October increase in the index to near-post-financial crisis highs is a good sign, but Indiana’s economic future is likely to continue recent years’ trend: bouncy with lots of small dips and an occasional increase.

— Zach Ammerman