Kokomo comeback

Kokomo is irrefutable evidence of the auto bailout’s success. Unemployment in the city peaked at 20.4 percent in 2009 but has since dropped nearly 8 percentage points to 12.7 percent.

Imagine how drastic the unemployment rate could have been had Chrysler liquidated.

IU-Kokomo Chancellor Michael Harris, an economist who specializes in the auto industry, said he believes that employment would have reached 35 percent “if the auto industry would have totally walked away from Kokomo.”

With this in mind, President Barack Obama stopped by Kokomo last week as part of an attempt to legitimize his administration’s actions and to claim credit for its successes.

After all, the city that had been dubbed third out of 10 of “America’s fastest dying towns” in 2008 by Forbes has made an incredible comeback.

In a speech given at a Chrysler transmission plant, Obama emphasized that “there were those who were prepared to give up on Kokomo and our auto industry. There were those who said it was going to be too difficult or that it was bad politics or it was throwing good money after bad,” but noted that all three companies assisted in the bailout — General Motors, Ford and Chrysler — “are profitable, and they are growing.”

But politically speaking, although the stimulus was “the right decision,” as Obama said, the trip was ill-timed and largely futile.

As Brian Howey, publisher of Howey Politics Indiana, noted, it was odd for Obama to not defend the stimulus until “three weeks after a shellacking election.”

The administration’s greatest weakness has long been its lack of communication, its lack of ability to disseminate easily understood information on its objectives and its seeming refusal to defend itself against slander.     

It’s a funny quandary, given the Obama campaign’s skillful handling of the 2008 election via grassroots support and social media. What the president now needs is the same youthful vitality for a PR campaign — but even then, swaying the public will be difficult.

As Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said, “You could talk to people in Michigan who would say, ‘Yes, I work at GM, my job was saved because the administration saved GM, but you know what? I’m voting Republican because I’m mad about the economy.’”

This mentality has been prevalent throughout history — presidents lauded later for taking necessary measures are vilified during their actual term for not achieving the miraculous instantaneously. Take, for instance, Obama’s approval rating.

Many point to it as a sign of waning public disapproval, and it currently stands at 45 percent approval, according to Gallup polls. But a significant comparison can be made to Ronald Reagan, who also entered office amid a recession.

A new study conducted from the Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll with the Pew Research Center found that 47 percent of Americans want Obama to run for re-election, a number much greater than the 36 percent who supported Reagan running again when asked the same question at the same time during his term.

So while Obama’s approval rating might sag now, just look to Reagan, who won re-election by a large margin in similar circumstances and with an even lower approval rating. Of course, this recession is the greatest since the 1930s, and Obama’s burden is therefore greater than Reagan’s. Yet he has staved off financial ruin pragmatically and responsibly.

Still, voter dissatisfaction will linger for now — it is unlikely Obama will keep Indiana blue in 2010.

But keep in mind that Rome burned in days — and while Nero hastily established a disaster fund, updated the water supply system, reined in the damages within all feasible human parameters and even offered incentives for private landowners to rebuild, well, it took more than a day to build it up again — and assassination plots and severe partisanship certainly weren’t conducive.

So, give Obama a chance. He might communicate ineffectually, but without him Kokomo and so many other places would be in ashes.


E-mail: celgrund@indiana.edu