The lessons of two quakes

The recent major earthquakes in the Western Hemisphere have given this year something of an apocalyptic feel. Not unsurprisingly, the shortsighted Pat Robertson has seized the opportunity to claim at least the Haitian earthquake as divine vengeance against a sinful world.

While Robertson once again displayed his know-nothing bigotry in claiming the quake to be the latest material manifestation of a metaphysical battle being waged after Haitians (Robertson claimed) made a pact with the devil, reputable sources have also acknowledged averting natural disaster is, at least in part, in human hands.

The earthquake that struck Port-au-Prince measured 7.0 on the Richter scale; Saturday’s earthquake in Chile measured 8.8. In Haiti there were 220,000 casualties; in Chile, hundreds.

What, then, explains the inverse correlation between the magnitude of the quakes and their corresponding death tolls?

The arbitrariness of nature is partially to blame. Whereas the seismic activity in Chile occurred 21 miles below the surface in an offshore, unpopulated area, the Haitian tremor began a mere eight miles below the surface and occurred right on the edge of Port-au-Prince.

But social phenomena including wealth, emergency preparation and the enforcement of building codes also explain part of the differences between the two countries.

Chile is the wealthiest nation in Latin America, Haiti the poorest in the Western Hemisphere. Architects in Chile have thus been able to build thousands of earthquake-resistant homes for the poor. There may be as few as three earth-quake resistant buildings in all of Haiti.

Chile has a strict building code, whereas Haiti has none at all. Chilean emergency response has been sharpened by a history of seismic activity.

Frequent tremors are part of life on the Andean ridge, and Chile has been hit by three earthquakes over magnitude 8.7. Port-au-Prince had not experienced a major earthquake in 250 years.

Wealth and experience together determine the sort of life-saving response a country offers those whose lives depend on such response.

The overwhelming growth of the global population and its concentration in urban areas in the past two centuries creates a disastrous dynamic as far as earthquakes are concerned.

Though many urban areas might not be as affected by poverty as Port-au-Prince, many are just as susceptible to infrequent but powerful quakes. 

As a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey summarized for the Washington Post, “You can name about 25 cities that are like Port-au-Prince. They’re not going to shake but every 250 years ... but if you can name 25 of them, you’re going to have an event like this every 10 years.”

Because cities that only shake every 250 years have experience with quakes more akin to that of Haiti than Chile, the human death toll could likewise be enormous.

Robertson might be rudely awakened to this fact closer to home. Many American cities, including New York, should expect infrequent earthquakes yet have done little in the way of architectural preparation.

On second thought, if disaster strikes New York instead of, say, Colorado Springs, there is nothing to suggest Robertson will have qualms about continuing to cruelly characterize human suffering as divine vengeance.


E-mail: wallacen@indiana.edu