Can IU beat No. 8 Purdue?

IU coach Tom Crean doesn’t set numerical goals. Google it, and you’ll see a number of quotes saying just that.

The Hoosiers’ second-year coach knows where improvement is being made and that progress is not necessarily something that can be defined by wins and losses.

But for everyone else, what are reasonable expectations as the Hoosiers begin the first of their final 10 games today versus Purdue? Perhaps more importantly, what needs to be accomplished for this season to be considered a success?

At 9-11, a 10th win would certainly be a milestone for the Hoosiers. Maybe a greater goal for IU should be to pull out a few more conference wins, a feat that might place the team as high as eighth in the Big Ten.

Having already lost its previous matchup to Feb. 28 opponent Iowa and looking at the road ahead, IU could very well play the underdog role in each of the remaining games. In other words, it could be quite the struggle for the Hoosiers down the stretch.

But the tough schedule also creates a great opportunity for IU to really show how far it has come in year two.

If the Hoosiers manage to eke out, say, two or three more victories, the difference between an 11-19 season and a 12-18 record would be marginal. One win here or there won’t mean anything in the long run.

What IU really must do to prove it is much closer to a return to national prominence, at least for me, is to get a signature win – going up against a ranked opponent and pulling an upset.

It’s time for IU to prove it can hang with NCAA Tournament-caliber teams – much like the Hoosiers did for one half versus Kentucky in December. In the team’s only major Big Ten test to date, they fell by 25 at Ohio State.

The wins versus Pittsburgh, Michigan and Minnesota were, for lack of a better term, nice. Certainly those victories were good for the program moving forward.

But that wasn’t the same Pitt team that started Big East play 5-0 and will likely be dancing come March, and the Wolverines and Golden Gophers are second-tier Big Ten teams.

Beginning with No. 8 Purdue (18-3) today at Assembly Hall, six of IU’s next 10 opponents are currently among the 20 best teams in America.

Crean’s squad will have a number of opportunities to upend a serious foe, but what’s stopping them from doing it today?

A year ago, IU was 0-8 in games versus Top 25 opponents. IU’s December loss to then-No. 4 Kentucky has been its only matchup to date with a ranked team this season.  
Sure, rankings are subjective, but a win is a win versus a ranked foe, especially a team as highly regarded as Purdue this late in the year.

IU is 0-10 versus Top 25 opponents since March 2008, dating back to the 103-74 debacle at Michigan State.

The Hoosiers’ last big win – though not an upset, due to IU’s ranking – came against none other than the Boilermakers on Feb. 19, 2008 in the final game of Kelvin Sampson’s tenure at IU. 

IU hasn’t faced Purdue at home since, but in the one trip to Mackey Arena lead by Crean, the Hoosiers were within three possessions of the Boilermakers 37 minutes into the game.

Purdue is currently riding a four-game win streak and has key wins against Tennessee, West Virginia and Wisconsin. 

Crean said the Boilermakers are one of the top teams in the nation, and the Hoosiers can’t afford to make many errors. 

“For us to be able to beat a team like Purdue now, we have to play an outstanding game in a lot of areas,” Crean said Monday in the Big Ten weekly teleconference.
 
But the Boilermakers are only 3-2 on the road, including a loss at Northwestern, and they haven’t seen an opponent’s floor in 16 days. 

Beating an opponent of Purdue’s caliber would be huge for IU looking ahead, though it might not happen today or even at all this season.

You might call me crazy for thinking IU has a reasonable chance tonight. But should the Hoosiers pull off the upset, I won’t be the one having to decide whether a team’s fans can storm the court twice in one year.

Cohen’s Prediction: IU 68, Purdue 66