'Cine'cism

There are likely a dozen reasons why the Academy decided to create 10 Best Picture slots this year instead of five, and I will not explore them here. But this is the Academy’s experiment, and if performed correctly, it will result in a worthy line-up of 10 films. If there was ever a year to double up, this is it.

Here’s a bit of what to expect when the Oscar nominations are announced Feb. 2.

Best Picture

In: “Avatar” is the front-runner in this year’s race, firstly because it is amazing but also because it’s the Academy’s way of apologizing for snubbing “The Dark Knight.” “Up” is also in, set to become the second animated film to ever be nominated for the category, and again, the Academy’s way of apologizing for snubbing “Wall-E.”

Critical favorites “The Hurt Locker” and “Up in the Air” are locks because of the values they represent. “Precious” is the heart-wrenching indie gem of the year that sentimental voters will eat up, and “Inglourious Basterds” is the gut-wrenching gem of the year that Jewish voters will love.

Maybe: “An Education” was an early favorite, but some of its buzz has died down. “A Serious Man” is a Coen Brothers classic, but unlike “Basterds,” this dark comedy may turn off the Jewish voters.

“Invictus,” “Nine” and “The Lovely Bones” were all big contenders until people saw them. They are still in the race however because “Invictus” is an inspirational sports movie by Clint Eastwood, “Nine” is a lavish musical rife with star power and “Bones” is a visually lush tragedy about a young girl that gets raped and murdered, directed by Peter Jackson. All sound like Oscar bait to me.

If not, then there is a good chance for either “District 9,” “The Messenger” or “The Hangover,” which just won Best Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes.

Out: “Where the Wild Things Are” is out because it’s too polarizing, “(500) Days of Summer” is too indie, “A Single Man” is too artsy and “Star Trek” is too popcorny.

Best Actor

In: The veterans are all here: Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”), George Clooney (“Up in the Air”), Colin Firth (“A Single Man”) and Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”).  
With them is newcomer Jeremy Renner for “The Hurt Locker,” who gets a nomination just because of the swagger in his step.

Maybe: You’ll notice there are five actors in at this point. So it will be a big upset if Michael Stuhlbarg (“A Serious Man”) or Viggo Mortensen (“The Road”) sneak into the pack.

Out: Sadly, Brad Pitt (“Basterds”), Matt Damon (“The Informant!”) and, in my opinion, Max Records (“Wild Things”) simply won’t make the cut.

Best Actress

In: Was Meryl Streep in a movie this year? Yes – “Julie & Julia.” She’s in.  
With her are two newcomers: Carey Mulligan (“An Education”), who is full of spunk, and Gabourey Sidibe (“Precious”), who is so brave.

Maybe: The two women with the best shot and minimal competition are two veterans, Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”) and Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”). This would be Bullock’s first nod.

But expect competition from Emily Blunt (“The Young Victoria”), Marion Cotillard (“Nine”) and Abbie Cornish (“Bright Star”).

Out: Unfortunately, don’t expect love for Zooey Deschanel (“500 Days”), Melanie Laurent (“Basterds”) or Maya Rudolph (“Away We Go”).

Best Director

In: Kathryn Bigelow (“Hurt Locker”), who would only be the fourth woman ever nominated, is the current front-runner. Her ex-husband James Cameron (“Avatar”), should make this race interesting. The two other sure things are Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”) and Quentin Tarantino (“Basterds”). All four directors have made instant classics.

Maybe: As is usually the case, the Best Director nominees usually match up closely with the Best Pictures. If there were five, the first four would already be represented here. The last would be “Precious,” and Lee Daniels is certainly a possibility.

However, Clint Eastwood (“Invictus”), The Coen Brothers (“A Serious Man”) and Pete Doctor (“Up”) all have a good shot to steal the last spot.

Out: Spike Jonze (“Wild Things”) and Tom Ford (“A Single Man”) both made brilliant films this year, but their work is a bit too odd and controversial for the Academy voters to fully appreciate.

Best Supporting Actor

In: Guaranteed this Oscar season is the nomination and win for Christoph Waltz of “Basterds.” 

Other likely nominees are Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”), who is having a fantastic year, and Matt Damon for his very blonde performance in “Invictus.”

Maybe: Christopher Plummer (“The Last Station”) and Stanley Tucci (“The Lovely Bones”) have given much-praised performances in less praised films.

And yet, they are likely the front-runners against some great work by Alfred Molina (“An Education”) and Anthony Mackie (“Hurt Locker”).

Best Supporting Actress

In: What’s the other sure thing this year? Mo’Nique as the vicious mother of “Precious” is guaranteed an Oscar after her persona-changing performance.
However, the girls from “Up in the Air,” Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga, are this category’s dark horses.

Maybe: Julianne Moore (“A Single Man”) is another one of those great actresses that’s never won, and she has a another chance at a nod. And although most chart watchers aren’t giving much hope for Diane Kruger (“Basterds”) or Penelope Cruz (“Nine”), they’ve received other nominations throughout the awards season.