Polls have no power

As a country constantly evaluating the political process, it should come as no surprise that our nation is obsessed with polls. It seems that after every speech, debate or sneeze there is a survey of a sample population to find out their reaction and which candidate may now be closer to procuring the presidency.

Every week there is another set of statistics from major news sources and independent polling companies all claiming their data is the correct prediction of who will be next to run the country.

America’s fascination with which candidate is ahead on a week-to-week basis has continued to escalate since the primaries ended and the two senators have come forth to battle it out in the general election.

According to numbers from last week, Barack Obama has seen a lead against his GOP rival John McCain.

These numbers are compiled by Real Clear Politics, a Web site that takes the top polling companies in the country and averages their polls. Some of the polls included are Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen, Reuters and CNN just to name a few. A quick glance at the compilation of polls shows Obama leading in a majority of them.

However, a Rasmussen poll taken in Indiana does show McCain leading Obama by seven points.

According to polls, Obama currently has favor with 84 percent of those aligned with the Democratic party and McCain mirrors that with 85 percent of registered Republicans. Although those numbers are to be expected, it is Obama’s strong support from independents (a nine-point advantage) that leads pundits to believe Obama may win the White House.

But how many of these statistics are an indication of who the next president will be?

Pollster John Zogby said he believes it is all just smoke and mirrors due to the large number of undecided voters still “shopping” for their candidate. It’s an understandable sentiment, as the two senators up for the position of president differ from one another in large regard.

Because Obama is a junior senator and was virtually unknown before becoming presidential candidate, Zogby said he thinks undecided voters will wait until the last week of the campaign to make up their minds about whether or not they are comfortable voting for Obama.

Of course Zogby’s statements won’t change anything. Newscasters will continue to recite statistics from polls as a way to predict who will be president, and most of the population will take them as an indication of who will win.

This election happens to be the most popular drama on television today. It’s not as if spoilers are leaking onto the Internet, so polls are apparently the best foreshadowing available.

So until Nov. 4, American society will enjoy passively predicting which candidate will win the presidency until becoming active participants themselves.