Don’t jump the gun

The first one can be explained almost just from its headline: “Al-Qaeda in Iraq Reported Crippled.” Basically, the U.S. military thinks it may have finally beaten al-Qaeda down in Iraq to the point where it’s possibly irreversibly damaged. The Bush Administration is hesitant to declare them dead, for many reasons – not the least of which is that if they get back up, it could be a public-relations disaster.\nMission accomplished? Not quite yet. \nThe other article was an editorial concerning statistics coming out of Iraq. Evidently, they are actually good for once – September’s Iraqi civilian deaths were down more than half from August and 77 percent from this time last year, while U.S. troop deaths were down 43 percent from the previous month and down 64 percent from May of this year – the deadliest month thus far this year.\nThis all, I’m not proud to say, makes Moveon.org look a bit bad.\nThese are, of course, good things, unless you’re hiding in a cave in Pakistan or somewhere like that. It sounds like – at least for now – things are actually going a bit better in Iraq. I’m not sure, though, that it’s quite time to declare the war won.\nFirst of all, we’ve heard this before. The phrase “last throes of the insurgency” haunts me in my sleep to this day, as do “turned the corner” and the aforementioned banner. Throughout the invasion and occupation of Iraq, we have been told many times by our government that this mess is nearly over. Almost anyone who has taken an American history class has heard the phrase “credibility gap” before, and the Bush Administration is working with a significant one. \nHowever, for once, the data actually seem to support the idea that the war is at least improving – and the administration really doesn’t seem to be ready yet to blow its own horn. I’m actually inclined to believe this.\nOn the other hand, though, even if it’s assumed that this is all actually true, it may not matter. The fact that this month has been slow doesn’t necessarily mean anything, even during Ramadan, usually a busy time for al-Qaeda and the insurgents. The tide can turn fast, and before we know it I’ll writing a column about how Iraq can’t be saved.\nThe point is this: no matter what, complacency is just about the worst available option. We cannot just assume that now that things are improving a little, Iraq is in the clear. It’s not, and even if the fighting stopped tomorrow, the Iraqi government still needs work, to say the least. There is a long way to go, no matter what.\nOf course, we could just end the war right now by sending the Colorado Rockies to Iraq. They aren’t losing anything anytime soon.