Troubles' end?

Last Thursday, the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA) formally renounced the use of violence, ordering its members "to assist the development of purely political and democratic programmes through exclusively peaceful means ... (and) not engage in any other activities whatsoever" (BBC, July 28).\nCould this be the dawn of peace in Northern Ireland? Could this mean that after more than 30 years and 3,600 deaths, an intractable conflict has proven ... well ... tractable?\nIn the study of world events, pessimism tends loom large. My favorite example is the intellectual beating delivered to Francis Fukuyama's 1989 National Interest essay "The End of History?" Referring to philosopher G.W.F. Hegel's definition of history as the struggle between competing ideologies, Fukuyama argued that the Cold War's conclusion had brought history to an "end." The ideology of liberal democracy had triumphed over its 20th century competitors: communism, fascism, and hereditary rule. Dictatorships and command economies were to be replaced by free societies. \nIn international relations circles, this idea was met by great howls of derision. For about five years, seemingly every publication began with something akin to: "Well, Fukuyama might believe history has ended, but my research shows that..." The drubbing was so successful that by 2002, a chastened Fukuyama wrote Our Posthuman Future -- a book about how advances in biotechnology were threatening humanity and democracy.\nNot that I buy into Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis -- but its reception highlights that world-politics pessimists have it far easier than optimists. After all, if a pessimist turns out to be wrong, they can always say, "Well, thank God!" or better yet: "Clearly, they listened to my advice!" A mistaken optimist can only eat crow.\nSo, does the IRA's announcement mean the end of violence in Northern Ireland? There's still plenty of room for pessimism. Hard-liners could splinter off from the IRA, as the vicious "Real IRA" did in 1997. Some elements may turn to non-political crime. The Protestant yin to the the IRA's yang -- the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) -- is still led by the vile Rev. Ian Paisley, a rabidly anti-Catholic bigot. And, although it appears against their interests, there's still the possibility that the IRA is lying. Terrorist groups aren't known for their integrity.\nAnd yet, for all the pessimism, wondrous things do happen. Before 1989, how many guessed the Iron Curtain might collapse? Who, in 1945, would have thought that a peaceful Europe was in the cards? What mid-18th century observer was crazy enough to believe a rabble of farmers could fight off the world's strongest empire and establish representative democracy?\nSo, here's to optimism. Here's to the hope that the people of Northern Ireland are finally finding the peace that has eluded them for so long. And here's to wishing it lasts for at least for a little while.\nAfter all, I wrote this column three days ago.