Indiana baseball gets thrown from the frying pan of the Big Ten Tournament into the fire, entering the Knoxville Regional at Lindsey Nelson Stadium as the No. 3 seed.
The Hoosiers (32-24-1, 15-9 Big Ten) begin the NCAA Tournament against the No. 2 seed University of Southern Mississippi. The winner will face either No. 1 University of Tennessee or No. 4 Northern Kentucky University.
Indiana head coach Jeff Mercer acknowledged after Monday’s NCAA Tournament selection show some members of his first recruiting class, which stepped onto campus in 2021, will close their college careers this weekend. Outfielder Carter Mathison and infielder Brock Tibbitts, both of whom have been three-year everyday players for Indiana, are both eligible for the MLB Draft.
“To see them have this postseason run continue is very fulfilling and rewarding,” Mercer said. “You’re happy for those guys.”
Mercer continued, emphasizing the importance of freshmen experiencing a postseason environment. Second baseman Jasen Oliver and infielder Joey Brenczewski have seen consistent playing time in their inaugural seasons, demonstrating Mercer’s propensity for giving young players a chance to shine.
“Those guys are the future of your program,” Mercer said. “If you want to continue that kind of success, it’s important that those guys see what it looks like.”
Southern Miss (41-18, 20-10 Sun Belt) fell to Tennessee in three games at the Hattiesburg Super Regional last season. Led by first-year head coach Christian Ostrander, the Golden Eagles will first need to defeat Indiana to force a rematch with the Volunteers. The Sun Belt champions play similarly to Indiana. Neither team relies heavily on the home run ball — Indiana ranks 77th nationally with 78 homers while Southern Miss ranks 139th with 63.
Outfielder Dalton McIntyre, designated hitter Slade Wilks and outfielder Carson Paetow are three of the Golden Eagles’ best all-around bats, while Nick Monistere subscribes to the Carter Mathison approach of hitting for power but not for average — the Southern Miss infielder has hit 10 homers and holds an OPS of .818 despite a .249 batting average. Mathison is second among Hoosier hitters with 13 home runs, holding an OPS of .877 and a .257 batting average.
Both squads rely on gap-to-gap power and timely pitching. Indiana is tied for 10th out of 295 Division I teams with 134 doubles, and shortstop Tyler Cerny is top-15 in the NCAA with 23. Cerny leads Indiana with 60 RBIs, while outfielders Devin Taylor and Nick Mitchell are tied for second with 49. Taylor, the first player in Indiana history to be named first team All-Big Ten in his first two seasons, leads the Hoosiers in batting average (.352), OPS (1.090) and has hit a team-best 18 home runs, including six in his last 10 games.
Tibbitts is six hits away from becoming the 25th player to record 200 hits at Indiana. As one of several Indiana players who are either draft-eligible or playing their senior seasons, Tibbitts’s collegiate career is ending.
“You can’t ask for much more than to be one of the 64 teams competing to win their final game,” Tibbitts said Monday. “It was uncertain what the future held.”
Dependable pitching has helped the Golden Eagles more than the Hoosiers. Southern Miss holds a team ERA of 4.98, over one run better than Indiana’s 6.04. Additionally, Southern Miss is better at limiting baserunners, ranking 26th in Division I with a 1.39 WHIP. Indiana’s 1.51 WHIP ranks 85th.
Southpaw Ty Bothwell (6-3, 4.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) is among Indiana's most dependable hurlers, and the sixth-year senior will start versus Southern Miss in what is likely to be the final appearance of his college career. After overcoming the flu, he kept Indiana within striking distance May 25 versus Nebraska. He allowed a three-run homer but was otherwise solid in 4.1 innings, allowing five hits and striking out nine batters while walking none.
The Indiana bullpen, although shaky at times in the conference tournament, has some go-to arms. Righties Drew Buhr (2-2, 3.35 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), Julian Tonghini (2-2, 5.71 ERA, 1.67 ERA) and Brayden Risedorph (4-6, 7.52 ERA, 1.65 WHIP) are called upon for extended outings while Aydan Decker-Petty (2-2, 4.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) has improved throughout the season and Jacob Vogel (1-0, 2.42 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) is the closest Mercer has to a closer.
If Southern Miss puts up a crooked number early in Friday’s game, Indiana may turn to a lower-leverage arm to save some of its better pitchers for an elimination game. Indiana will likely begin Game 2 of the regional with Connor Foley (4-1, 3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) on the mound regardless of whether it is an elimination game.
Despite opponents hitting just .155 off Foley, the flamethrowing righty often runs into trouble on the basepaths. He has walked 42 batters in 60.2 innings and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is under two, an indication of shaky command. He walked three batters in four innings versus Ohio State on May 23, a game in which four of his five runs allowed were unearned even though he committed a costly throwing error and a balk that allowed the runs to score.
The Golden Eagles turn to their ace versus Indiana, handing the ball to right-hander Billy Oldham (7-2, 3.97 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). He leads Southern Miss in innings pitched (90.2) and strikeouts (96) and is pitching on four days’ rest after entering the Sun Belt Championship game May 26.
Southern Miss erased a two-run deficit in the ninth inning to win 14-11, but Oldham struggled, allowing three runs on a pair of home runs in the seventh. Oldham is at his best as a starter — he twirled seven innings of shutout ball, giving up one run versus Coastal Carolina University on May 22.
Winning the first game of a double-elimination game is a massive advantage, and Southern Miss has a handful of shutdown bullpen arms to turn to as it looks to spoil Tennessee’s home cooking.
Right-hander Colby Allen (9-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) leads the team in wins and saves (7), meaning he pitches in the late innings of close games and usually the offense rallies behind him. Southpaw Kros Sivley (4-5, 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and right-hander JB Middleton (2-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) have both appeared in over 20 games for the Golden Eagles. They see extended innings out of a bullpen that includes five pitchers with a sub-5 ERA in at least 20 innings pitched.
Tennessee (50-11, 22-8 SEC) enters as the No. 1 overall seed. It is the heavy favorite to win the regional and be the last team standing at the end of the College World Series. The Volunteers, led by head coach Tony Vitello in his seventh season, have been one of the premier teams in the nation’s top college baseball conference since he took over at the helm. Tennessee has appeared in every NCAA Tournament since 2019 — 2020 was canceled due to the pandemic — and made the College World Series in 2021 and 2023.
At the plate, Tennessee makes its living with the long ball. It ranks first in the country with 147 home runs and five Volunteers have hit at least 17 homers this season. Infielder Christian Moore leads the pack with 28, nine more than second-place infielder Billy Amick’s 19. First baseman Blake Burke and outfielders Kavares Tears and Dylan Dreiling are tied with 17.
A team worthy of the No. 1 overall seed must be elite on both sides of the ball, and Vitello’s squad fits the bill well. Tennessee’s team ERA of 3.86 ranks fourth among Division I teams, while its team WHIP of 1.22 is second nationally. Tennessee strikes out 18.6% more batters than it walks, which is sixth-best nationally.
Right-handers Drew Beam (8-2, 3.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) and AJ Causey (11-3, 4.10 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and lefty Zander Sechrist (3-1, 3.90 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) are staples at the front of the pitching staff while the bullpen is a murderer’s row of pitchers waiting to feast in front of the Volunteer faithful.
Righty Nate Snead (8-2, 3.26 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), southpaw Kirby Connell (4-0, 3.96 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) and right-hander Aaron Combs (2-1, 2.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) are a few of the prolific pitchers at Vitello’s disposal. Eight Tennessee pitchers have a sub-4 ERA in at least 20 innings pitched.
Playing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since moving to Division I, Horizon League champion Northern Kentucky (35-22, 19-11 Horizon League) can spoil Tennessee’s road to Omaha with its high-powered offense. The Norse score 9.51 runs per game, fourth-best nationally (Tennessee’s 9.07 runs per game ranks ninth). The Norse are top-15 in team batting average (.319), on-base percentage (.436) and slugging percentage (.545). They use the outfield gaps more than the home-run ball, but they produce runs all the same.
Infielder Liam McFadden-Ackman spearheads the slugging department with 21 homers and 76 RBIs, holding a team-best .729 slugging percentage. Outfielder Treyvin Moss is a contact machine, leading the Norse with a .388 batting average and 29 stolen bases on 32 attempts. Infielder Cleary Simpson reaches base more than he trots back to the dugout, toting a .504 on-base percentage.
As impressive as those numbers may be, there is a notable difference between Horizon League-caliber pitching and SEC-caliber pitching. In six games versus SEC teams this season, Northern Kentucky holds a 2-4 record, with all games being played on the road. It was swept by the University of Georgia from Feb. 23-25 but rebounded and won two out of three games at the University of Missouri from March 1-3. Mizzou won just nine of 30 conference games and finished with the worst overall record among SEC teams.
The Norse were outscored by 27 runs in those six games, but the trend is skewed by a 10-run loss in the series opener against Georgia and an 18-run loss in the second game of the Missouri series. The other four games were decided by two runs or fewer.
While Northern Kentucky can go toe-to-toe with Tennessee in the batter’s box, its pitching staff is by far the weakest of the four teams in Knoxville. The Norse hold a subpar team ERA of 7.40 (249th nationally) and their team WHIP of 1.74 is 221st among Division I teams. If the Norse want any chance at outslugging the Volunteers, right-hander Tanner Gillis (8-2, 4.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) will need his best stuff.
The last time Gillis faced an SEC team was Feb. 23. Georgia teed off on him, putting up 11 runs on 11 hits in just three innings — Gillis’s worst outing of the season by far. He returns to the mound one week after lifting the Norse over No. 1 seed Wright State University in the Horizon League semifinal on May 24. Needing a victory to force an elimination game, the Norse defeated the Raiders 10-6 behind 8.2 strong innings from Gillis, who allowed four runs on seven hits while striking out a season-high 11 batters.
As one of the last four teams into the tournament field, Indiana is a heavy underdog to win the Knoxville Regional. Although upsets are common in college baseball, it is unlikely the Hoosiers will advance past the No. 1 overall seed. Mercer is grateful his squad gets another week together after knowing there was a chance the season was over last Saturday.
“[There’s] a great sense of relief, happiness and fulfillment,” Mercer said about Indiana's selection to the 64-team field. “Especially for upperclassmen like [Bothwell] and [outfielder] Morgan Colopy.”
The Hoosiers begin the NCAA Tournament vs. No. 2 Southern Miss at 1 p.m. Friday and will play at 6 p.m. Saturday with a win, or noon Saturday with a loss. They will face the loser of the 7 p.m. Friday game between No. 1 Tennessee and No. 4 Northern Kentucky. All tournament games will be streamed on ESPN+.
Follow reporters Matt Press (@MattPress23) and Nick Rodecap (@nickrodecap) for updates throughout the Indiana baseball season.
