When the IU students and fans rushed the field after the victory over Michigan State, a chant emerged from the crowd: “We want ‘Bama.”
Well, they’ll get their wish Saturday. Ohio State is the closest facsimile of Alabama in the country. The Buckeyes could even be considered a better team than the Crimson Tide.
At first glance, it seems as if there is no hope for the Hoosiers, as the Buckeyes are nearly a complete team. But there are a few areas of small statistical weaknesses IU has to leverage if it wants to stay in the game.
Explosiveness
Ohio State just isn’t as high-powered as they have been in recent years. Per Football Study Hall, the Buckeyes are the nation’s 85th most explosive offense in the country when it comes to points-per-play on successful plays. This is especially true of Ohio State’s running game, which has zero rushes of 50 yards or more this season.
In last year’s game against IU, Buckeye running back Ezekiel Elliott torched the Hoosiers for touchdown runs of 55, 65 and 75 yards. The Buckeyes don’t have that type of running back this year.
In comparison, IU has the 14th most explosive offense in the nation.
These big plays could decide whether or not IU has a chance in this game — if IU is able to notch some chunk plays early on in the game, it could change the tenor of the contest. However it won’t be an easy task, as Ohio State is one of the top defenses in terms of not giving up explosive plays.
First Down Efficiency
Against Michigan State, IU averaged 8.7 yards per play on first down. That’s a terrific number, and it shows why IU was able to have so much success moving the ball against the Spartans.
Getting in second, third and long situations against the Buckeyes could prove fatal for IU’s offense. That’s why being efficient on first down is so critical to keeping drives going. IU needs to have success on first downs to give junior quarterback Richard Lagow more comfortable situations to do well.
Passing Advantage
IU may have the edge when it comes to passing, thanks to Lagow. Ohio State has the 40th ranked passing attack, according to Football Study Hall’s S&P+ metric that combines efficiency and explosiveness. IU, on the other hand, has the eighth highest S&P+ passing attack in the nation.
Ohio State counters IU’s passing attack with one of the best secondaries in the nation. But that secondary has yet to be tested by a receiving core as strong as IU’s. Lagow has proven capable of shredding average secondaries and he will need to play a near perfect game against Ohio State.
Lack of Dominant Buckeye Pass Rush
Ohio State defensive linemen only have 7.5 sacks this season, and there is no Joey Bosa on the Buckeye line who can terrorize the Hoosiers. IU’s offensive line did not give up a sack against Michigan State, and if they can keep Lagow upright, the offense has a chance to score some points.
Punt Returns
Another edge is in the punt return game, where IU can make up the hidden yardage. Two of Ohio State’s returners, seniors Dontre Wilson and Corey Smith, have each fumbled on a punt return. Neither fumbles ended up falling into the hands of their opponents, but if the Hoosiers can jump on at least one, it could provide them the momentum they might desperately need.
IU’s punt returners have had success so far this season, as senior Mitchell Paige and junior Rashard Fant are averaging a combined 10.8 yards per return. This hidden yardage can help the IU offense in a game against one of the toughest defenses in the country.
The Ohio State blemishes are small, but they are there. While the Hoosiers are playing with a spittoon-full of confidence, they have to play a nearly flawless game to have any chance of pulling off the upset.
