With all the major conference tournaments underway, the NCAA tournament field is close to being finalized. Leading up to the selection show Sunday, IU is a lock for the NCAA Tournament. What is still undecided is both where IU will be playing and what seed it will be.
Winning the Big Ten Tournament and the right sequence of events could have the Hoosiers as a No. 2 seed playing the first weekend of the tournament in St. Louis or Des Moines, Iowa, and potentially their Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games in Chicago or Louisville, Kentucky.
But an early exit from the Big Ten Tournament and well-performing teams below them could mean the Hoosiers dropping to a No. 4 seed and traveling to Denver, Spokane, Washington or Providence, Rhode Island, for the first weekend and then Anaheim, California. or Philadelphia for any potential Sweet 16 or Elite 8 games.
For IU to rise to a 2-seed
IU wins the Big Ten Tourney: For this scenario to be possible, IU will most likely need to win the Big Ten Tournament. Most projections have IU as a No. 3 seed right now but as one of the lower No. 3 seeds. So the Hoosiers will need a couple more signature wins to move up a seed line and then hope for some teams above them to falter in their conference tournaments.
Xavier loses early: The Musketeers are squarely in as a No. 2 seed right now, but a bad loss in the Big East Tournament could change that. They are also in the same geographical region as the Hoosiers, meaning they will be fighting each other to stay close to home for the first couple rounds of the tournament.
Notre Dame plays well: This is important for a couple reasons. One, it means the Hoosiers’ win against the Fighting Irish in December gets stronger and stronger. Two, many of the teams Notre Dame could play in the ACC Tournament are currently projected ahead of or at the same level as IU.
Oregon stumbles early: The Ducks are projected as a No. 2 seed right now, but an early loss in the Pac-12 Tournament could change that. Especially since Oregon’s first game will be against Washington, a team currently projected to not make the NCAA Tournament.
For IU to stay a 3-seed
IU wins at least a game: For the Hoosiers’ seed to remain static, they can’t lose in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament. What might vary is where IU plays. A loss in the semifinals might send the Hoosiers away from home for the first round. A loss in the finals could send them somewhere closer to Bloomington.
Michigan State wins the Big Ten Tournament: If the Spartans win the Big Ten Tournament, that could mean wins against Maryland in the semis and a win against Purdue or Maryland in the finals, all teams trying to catch the Hoosiers in terms of seeding.
Kentucky doesn’t win the SEC Tournament: The Wildcats are another local team who could take a Midwest site from the Hoosiers. But any loss in a weak SEC Tournament will most likely keep Kentucky as a No. 4 seed.
Utah plays well in the Pac-12 Tournament: The Utes are also a No. 3 seed right now, and a nice run in the conference tournament should keep the Hoosiers behind them. This most likely involves beating a Cal team in the semifinals who is surging right now.
For IU to fall to a 4-seed
IU loses its first game of the Big Ten Tournament: If the Hoosiers lose to either Michigan or Northwestern, they could be in trouble. Not only could they drop a seed line, but could also find themselves traveling a ways for the opening weekend.
Purdue wins the Big Ten Tournament: If the Boilermakers win in Indianapolis, it means they picked up a lot of quality wins along the way. Potential wins against Iowa in the quarterfinals, IU in the semifinals and then a potential win against Michigan State in the finals could have Purdue’s stock skyrocket.
Iowa wins the Big Ten Tournament: Essentially the same scenario as Purdue, but with the Hawkeyes winning in the quarterfinals. This one is a longshot though, with the Hawkeyes down to a No. 6 seed after losing four of its last five to close the season.
Maryland wins the Big Ten Tournament: Maryland is coming from the other side of the bracket, so this would mean a win against Wisconsin in the quarterfinals, a win against Michigan State in the semifinals and beating either Iowa or Purdue in the finals. The Terps are currently a No. 5 seed.
All current seed projections from Andy Bottoms of Assembly Call
