When these two teams met at the end of February, the Wildcats were on a roll and made the Hoosiers their fourth consecutive victim.
At the same time, IU was in the midst of their worst stretch of the season. That hasn’t really changed for the Hoosiers, but they did play well in their recent loss to Michigan State, so the arrow is pointing up.
On the Wildcats’ end, they’ve cooled off a bit since the last meeting. Northwestern ended their regular season with blowout losses sandwiching a home victory against Michigan.
Even when they were winning games, Northwestern didn’t score a lot of points. This isn’t a team that will run you off the court, but they do have some weapons, and IU Coach Tom Crean knows it.
On his weekly radio show, “Inside Indiana Basketball,” Crean raved about Northwestern junior guard Tre Demps.
Demps was recently named an honorable mention for the All-Big Ten team, and for good reason. Against IU, he led all scorers with 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting.
The other weapon to watch out for will be freshman guard Bryant McIntosh, who tallied nine assists against the Hoosiers. McIntosh also earned some Big Ten honors Monday when he was named to the All-Freshman team.
But while those two guards have proven to be an issue for IU, 7-foot junior center Alex Olah will dictate the game.
Olah scored 17 points on a Hoosier team missing sophomore forward Collin Hartman. Hartman gives up a lot of height to Olah, but he can do a better job against the big man than junior forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea.
Mosquera-Perea let Olah have position in the low post too easily — largely because he couldn’t foul Olah due to the lack of depth. Not that IU has post depth now, but with Hartman back, those two can be more aggressive on Olah and should do a better job limiting him.
One thing Northwestern does well is play slow and limit its opponents’ possessions. That’s a good strategy when your team is less talented than almost any other in your conference. When you limit possessions, you limit opportunities for the other team to pull away.
That’s in direct contrast to what IU wants to do — run. IU only turned the ball over four times against Northwestern in their first meeting. The Wildcats won’t force many this time either, so the Hoosiers can’t be afraid to push it.
And if IU wants to play fast and Northwestern wants to play slow, someone has to give.
The best way to speed up the Wildcats is to apply pressure from the defensive end. The Hoosiers have experimented with a full-court press during the past couple of weeks, and it has proven to be somewhat effective.
We saw it against Northwestern, and it worked pretty well. Then in the regular season finale against Michigan State, IU’s press allowed them to climb back into the game after being down 11 points with three minutes and 50 seconds left in the game.
One thing that has hurt IU all season is allowing opponents to score on several consecutive possessions. That sounds obvious, but when you score on IU, it’s almost like a “buy one, get one free” sale with buckets.
A full-court press will keep Northwestern from getting into a rhythm on offense.
However, IU has to be careful not to overdo it. Foul trouble, fatigue and sloppiness can result from over-pressing. I would suggest three or four stints of press for a few minutes each. That should be enough to disrupt the Wildcats.
The Hoosiers’ bubble has grown to the point that their tournament hopes are on the line in this game. Lose, and they are likely out. That extra motivation plus the signs of life they displayed against Michigan State leads me to pick IU in the second round tilt.
My Prediction: IU 76 — Northwestern 67
Casey Krajewski is 17-3 in his predictions this season.
