IU baseball 2014 pitching projection

The second part of a three-part series previewing next year’s IU baseball lineup examines the pitching staff. Now that Aaron Slegers, the 2013 Big Ten Pitcher of the Year, has signed with the Minnesota Twins, the starting rotation looks to be lefty-heavy.

Below is a look at what next year’s starting rotation and bullpen might look like.
Note: classes of each player are listed for the 2014 season.

Rotation: incumbents
1. LH senior Joey DeNato
2013 stats:  10-2, 2.52 ERA, 19 App, 18 GS, 2 CG, 103.2 IP, 97 H, 87 K, 43 BB, .254 Opp B/Avg
2. LH junior Kyle Hart
2013 stats: 8-2, 3.01 ERA, 15 App, 15 GS, 83.2 IP, 83 H, 50 K, 27 BB, .262 Opp B/Avg
3. LH sophomore Will Coursen-Carr
2013 stats: 5-0, 1.93 ERA, 17 App, 11 GS, 1 CG, 65.1 IP, 54 H, 37 K, 27 BB, .233 Opp B/Avg

Rotation: challengers
RH sophomore Christian Morris
2013 stats: 1-1, 4.68 ERA, 13 App, 2 GS, 25 IP, 35 H, 12 K, 7 BB, .343 Opp B/Avg
RH junior Luke Harrison
2013 stats: 4-2, 2.82 ERA, 22 App, 0 GS, 38.1 IP, 36 H, 32 K, 9 BB, .248 Opp B/avg
LH freshman Austin Foote
2013 high school stats unavailable
LH freshman Reece Phillips
2013 high school stats unavailable

Analysis: It would seem as if the only pitchers guaranteed to make the rotation are DeNato and Hart because of their starting experience.

IU Coach Tracy Smith is faced with an unusual problem: does he insert Coursen-Carr into the weekend rotation and throw three quality lefties each series, or does he put a righty in there and send Coursen-Carr to the bullpen or back to the mid-week starting spot?

Coursen-Carr was the mid-week starter during the regular season and eventually became a key member of the pitching staff in the postseason.

He tossed a complete game to clinch the Big Ten Tournament title, started and got the win when IU clinched the Bloomington Regional and got the win out of the bullpen in the Hoosiers’ super regional-clinching victory against Florida State.

Coursen-Carr gives Smith a lot of flexibility since he excelled both as a starter and in long relief.

What will likely go a long way toward determining if Coursen-Carr makes the weekend rotation will be if he improves his control.

The freshman walked 27 batters in 65.1 innings and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.37.

If Smith does decide he wants a righty in the weekend rotation so that opposing teams can’t stack their lineups with right-handed hitters and to give opposing hitters a different look, Harrison is the most likely candidate to enter the rotation.

Harrison was a valuable bullpen arm because of his ability to bail out ineffective starters and pitch in long relief if need be, as his 22 appearances covered 38.1 innings.
The seldom-used Morris is also a candidate, having made two starts in 2013. In this scenario whichever righty doesn’t make the weekend rotation would likely be the mid-week starter or the primary long reliever.

Smith said he likes having lefties start because they help control the running game, but was concerned about throwing three southpaws in weekend series.

Bullpen: the back three
Closer: RH senior Ryan Halstead
2013 stats: 4-5, 2.89 ERA, 28 App, 11 saves, 43.2 IP, 30 H, 48 K, 12 BB, .189 Opp B/Avg
Set up man: RH sophomore Scott Effross
2013 stats: 6-1, 2.44 ERA, 28 App, 5 saves, 62.2 IP, 53 H, 34 K, 13 BB, .230 Opp B/Avg
Lefty specialist: LH senior Brian Korte
2013 stats: 1-0, 1.65 ERA, 17 App, 1 save, 16.1 IP, 14 H, 7 K, 8 BB, .246 Opp B/Avg

Analysis: Halstead, a 26th-round draft pick of the Twins, is rumored to be returning to Bloomington for his senior season.

He has until midnight July 13 to decide, and if he does in fact return, IU’s bullpen will get a huge boost by being able to retain its single season and career saves leader.
In that scenario, Halstead would stay the closer, with Effross a more-than-capable replacement if he falters.

Otherwise, the formula for closing out games remains the same: Effross is the bridge in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings for Halstead, and Korte is there to shut down the oppositions’ best left-handed hitters in key situations.

The bullpen would look relatively the same with pitchers shifting around depending on how the rotation is ultimately structured and what role Foote and Phillips, the incoming freshmen, end up filling.