A look at 2016 Democratic presidential candidates

As the final vote tallies came in from the 2012 general election last week, many people’s eyes, including mine, began to turn elsewhere: 2016.

In modern political campaigns, it’s no longer enough to spend years working one’s way up from the bottom of the political ladder from city councilperson to president.

No, candidates must now form exploratory committees, secure donors, form alliances, talk with their families, assemble huge staffs and create all the necessary groundwork to run a multimillion-dollar presidential campaign.In essence, it is not an exaggeration to say the 2016 presidential campaign starts now.

Both parties will have to nominate candidates, and I thought I would take this chance, as many others have, to give some insight into Democratic contenders.

Let’s get this out of the way first. If either Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or Vice President Joe Biden runs, that individual will receive the nomination. But I don’t think Clinton or Biden will run.

They are both getting older. Biden will be about the same age as Reagan was at his inauguration, and Clinton seems to be weary of politics.

Who are potential nominees for the Democrats?

A number of names have been bandied about, many of them governors: Andrew Cuomo of New York, Deval Patrick of Massachusetts and Martin O’Malley of Maryland.

Some have pointed out Patrick’s similarities to President Barack Obama. Both are black, were raised by single mothers, attended Harvard Law School and are associated with the South Side of Chicago. Patrick has generally been more successful than Obama in his legislative goals, including implementing and improving health care reform passed by former Gov. Mitt Romney, protecting same-sex marriage rights and improving education.

Cuomo is known — some might say notorious — for compromise. He is often seen as sacrificing the goals of his supporters and his party for the sake of empty bipartisanship. Nonetheless, he might appeal to more business- and finance-oriented Democrats.

O’Malley gave a primetime speech at the 2012 Democratic National Convention.
These speeches are often seen as big stepping stones toward higher office. Again, Obama is the example here with his 2004 speech. Still, O’Malley has little name recognition outside his own state.

Finally, an interesting long shot is Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer. His legislative record seems to spread across the political spectrum. He wants to enact single-payer health care in his state, something the left supports, yet is strongly opposed to gun control, a position shared with many on the right. He supports alternative energy sources but wants to expand environmentally damaging mining.  

In the end, what matters isn’t what I write here or what the pundits say elsewhere.

It’s who the people decide to pick.

As it stands, Clinton and Biden are far in the lead in approval ratings among Florida voters, with Cuomo coming in a distant third.

The rest sit in the single-digit range more from lack of visibility than disapproval.

Perhaps it is this visibility, and not anything else, that is most important in determining the 2016 nominee.

­— estahr@indiana.edu