'Cine'cism

Welcome to Oscar season, in which an analysis of which period pieces will be nominated for Best Costume Design can make a bracketology advocate during March Madness look sane.

This year’s race is closer than the Iowa caucuses (and most of the candidates just as mediocre), and the new voting system is more confusing than the BCS Championship. But I’m here to coach you through what will happen when the nominees are announced Tuesday, Jan. 24.

Best Picture

The Artist
War Horse
The Descendants
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Moneyball
The Tree of Life

Dark Horses - Drive; Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

For those of you playing along at home, this year’s Best Picture category once again changed from being a field of 10 to being anywhere from five to 10. Only movies that receive 5 percent of the first-place vote on the Academy’s ballots are even eligible.

So, in order to accurately predict this category, it’s critical to know which movies are not just popular with the general public, but which are the far-and-away favorites.

This means tearjerkers and crowd-pleasers like “The Artist,” “War Horse,” “The Descendants,” “Hugo” and “Midnight in Paris” are definitely in.

“The Help” and “Moneyball” are crowd favorites, but are they anyone’s number one choice? My guess is yes, but “Moneyball” could yet be on the bubble.

That would make for a field of seven, but I’m predicting eight. “The Tree of Life” is by far the most polarizing and widely debated film of the year. Critics love it and hate it, but so do audiences. This film has a genuine cult following of avid supporters who believe Terrence Malick’s film is a masterpiece.

But don’t count out “Drive” or the latest “Harry Potter.” The Academy voting body is younger than in years past, and it could potentially jump behind the hyper-violent and stylish action movie or the wonderfully reviewed finale to the biggest franchise of
all time.

Best Actor

George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Dark Horses - Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

This is easily the most interesting acting category across the board. George Clooney, Jean Dujardin and Brad Pitt all give wonderful performances in the frontrunners for the Best Picture race. They’re locks.

Michael Fassbender was long considered the dark horse here. His movie “Shame” is as dark and painful as they come, but voters have realized how marvelously brave his
work is.

Who should really be worried is Leonardo DiCaprio. “J. Edgar” took a nosedive in the minds of voters when it turned out to be below average, and his hair, makeup and accent performance are no longer cutting it.

As a dark horse, Michael Shannon could get the nod for his little-seen indie “Take Shelter,” something that won’t get any other attention
Oscar night.

Best Actress

Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streem, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Dark horses - Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia

It’s a shame all the great female performances of the year are in movies that are thin soup in comparison. Regardless, the Academy can’t ignore Meryl Streep and Michelle Williams for doing perfect impersonations of such massive public figures.

I still don’t know much about “Albert Nobbs,” but Glenn Close doubles as a man in this movie. She’s in. Viola Davis is also a shoe-in for being the most memorable and genuine part of “The Help.”

Charlize Theron was once considered a solid contender, but her cynical, unlikable performance has a lot of competition from dark horses whose films were simply better received in the eyes of the public.

Best Supporting Actor

Albert Brooks, Drive
Christophe Plummer, Beginners
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Ben Kingsley, Hugo

Dark Horses - Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Nick Nolte, Warrior; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris; Robert Forster, The Descendants; Andy Serkis, The Rise of the Planet of the Apes; Alan Rickman, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

The supporting categories are still a toss-up, as far as I’m concerned. Albert Brooks, Christopher Plummer and Kenneth Branagh have all swept enough critic awards to be surefire nominees, but just about anyone can take the last two spots.

I’m predicting Patton Oswalt and Ben Kingsley — Oswalt because he’s a popular comedian and the most relatable person in “Young Adult,” and Kingsley because he portrays a movie legend in “Hugo.”

I also can’t get behind Jonah Hill being nominated for an Oscar for one second. It would be nice to see Ernest Hemingway (Corey Stoll) and Professor Snape (Alan Rickman) get nominated, though.

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus

Dark Horses: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Jessica Chastain, The tree of Life

Talk about a weak category.

Berenice Bejo, Shailene Woodley and Octavia Spencer aren’t exactly earth-shattering in their films, but their movies are big-ticket items.

Vanessa Redgrave is this year’s booming veteran performance in, of all things, a Shakespearean drama, “Coriolanus.”

The last spot could go to one of two films for the same person. Jessica Chastain was nowhere a year ago, but now she’s everywhere, and even she doesn’t know whether to stand behind her work in “The Help,” “The Tree of Life” or “Take Shelter.”

There’s also a big push to get a nomination for Melissa McCarthy for “Bridesmaids.” There’s something about diarrhea coming out like lava that’s considered Oscar-worthy.

Best Director

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Dark Horses - Martin Scorsese, Hugo; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

It isn’t often that four of the contenders for Best Director could also be considered some of the best of all time. Terrence Malick, Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese and Woody Allen are all in the hunt.

Scorsese is actually considered one of the favorites, but I’m going out on a limb and predicting that the Academy will view these other films as stronger directorial achievements and statements than Scorsese’s visually beautiful ode to silent cinema.

In fact, Michel Hazanvicius’s ode to silent cinema is much more eye popping to the Academy. He and Alexander Payne are locks.

I’m predicting the dark horse Malick because no film this year screamed a more personal directorial vision than “The Tree of Life."

I’m also throwing a much needed bone to “Drive” director Nicolas Winding Refn. He won the Cannes directing award months ago, but the critics are helping his fight now. His stylization may prove noticeable.

Best Original Screenplay

Aside from “The Artist” and “Midnight in Paris,” the Best Original Screenplay category will favor films that will most certainly get the shaft elsewhere. 

“Bridesmaids” seems to be the obvious popular Best Picture snub choice, so it’s in here at the very least. Former winner Diablo Cody penned “Young Adult”, so I’m going to give her a nod.

And “Win Win” was this year’s most loved and lighthearted American indie. There’s the possibility that the darker “Martha Marcy May Marlene,” “Beginners” or “50/50” could give it a run for its money however.

Best Adapted Screenplay