Official Oscar Ballot 2011

Predicting the Oscars is a science in the sense that it is not a science at all.
 
If it were, I would have an entire spreadsheet that proves more critics chose “The Social Network” as the best movie of the year than any other movie, and by a long shot, too. I can also point to data trends of the Academy over the last five, 10, 20 or 83 years and make predictions that way.

And yet the science comes in that it is most logical to expect the unexpected and predict based on what is most expected of the Academy and no one else.

With that “logic,” it seems absurd that anything but “The King’s Speech” can actually walk away the big winner Sunday night.

Does it actually make the most sense to you or me? Possibly not, but the same is true of a dozen other Oscar categories, and this is WEEKEND’s feeble attempt to make light of that Academy mindset.

Best Picture
There was a time when this was a two horse race, and if I really wanted to be charitable, I’d say five films had a shot. “Black Swan,” “The Fighter” and “True Grit” all have outside chances of winning the big prize based on their amount of critical acclaim, other awards they’ve already snatched up and the stories a win would tell.

However, “The King’s Speech” will be king. Here is a classic Hollywood film that has performed immensely well at the box office. It is inspirational, visually stunning, brilliantly acted and is all true to boot. Unlike it’s rival, “The Social Network,” all of its greatness is up there on the screen, and it is the overwhelming favorite that anyone can appreciate.
 
If “The Social Network” stands any sort of chance, it is because its level of critical acclaim is overwhelming, a Golden Globe win does actually mean something and it has the ability to define the year of 2010 better than any other film can.

Actor
In the same way that the greatness of the “The King’s Speech” is up there on screen, so is Colin Firth’s performance. We can see how much work he put into his role in every stutter, in every pause and in every completed sentence. He lost to fellow nominee Jeff Bridges last year, but he is a phenomenal actor that deserves this Oscar. Although Jesse Eisenberg’s low-key performance may have an outside shot, it is Firth’s race to lose.
 
Supporting Actor
Although the best indicator in this category is who won the Golden Globe, I would bet Christian Bale would take this even if he had lost the Globe. Like Firth, he’s all there, and he too is portraying a real life character. What’s more, the feeling of anguish and pain brought by the character’s drug use is a great incentive to the Academy. If “King’s Speech” sweeps, Geoffrey Rush may ride that wave, but it’s a tough guess.

Actress
This is possibly the richest group of nominees in the Oscars, but Natalie Portman has saturated herself in the media as America’s sweetheart. “Black Swan” works because of her level of depth and complexity. But it’s also a success story to know that she put herself through hell in learning how to dance and lost a lot of weight in the process. Annette Bening did some great screen acting in “The Kids Are All Right,” and her upset could come because it’s the only comedy.

Supporting Actress
The hardest acting category to predict is the Supporting Actress category. Melissa Leo has long been the front runner for her performance, which is as big and commanding as the other nominees’. But she may split her vote with Amy Adams. And although Helena Bonham Carter is in the front running film, it has quickly become the consensus that Hailee Steinfeld actually played the lead in “True Grit.” If the Academy were to ever heap acclaim on a young actor, this would be the place to do it.

Directing
For eight of the last 10 years, the Director’s Guild winner has matched up perfectly with the Oscar winner for Best Director. And for seven of the last 10 years, the Oscar winning director has matched with the Best Picture winner. Tom Hooper won this year’s DGA award, and if we assume a “King’s Speech” victory, then it would be unwise to bet against him. But David Fincher won the BAFTA, an award that would logically go to a Brit, and he too is a formerly nominated, legacy director yet to make his mark.

Adapted Screenplay
Aside from being the most dialogue heavy of all the nominees, Aaron Sorkin’s “Social Network” is the best “adaptation” of a biography, crafting a story that is part true and part enchanting fantasy.

Original Screenplay
Believe it or not, “Inception” won the Writer’s Guild award, and “The Kids Are All Right” is a witty, feel good comedy that won’t win any other awards, but I’ve said it before; this is a “King’s Speech” year.

Documentary Feature
The Academy likes to think that their award recognizes a film that makes a statement, like an endorsement of a cause. “Inside Job” is a hard-hitting journalistic take on the economic crisis in America with a real timely pull. But people are curious about seeing Banksy, who, after his “Exit Through the Gift Shop” nomination, has apparently been leaving his mark around Los Angeles.

Animated Feature
“Toy Story 3” will win, hands down.

Art Direction
The aesthetics of “Alice in Wonderland” and “Inception” are certainly the showiest, but “The King’s Speech” will go on a roll, and its glorious palace setting has a good chance to sweep up this award as well.

Cinematography
I wrote a column about all five nominees in this category, but Roger Deakins of “True Grit” has been nominated nine times and never won. Now he’s modernized Western on-location cinematography the way John Ford would have. He’s a lock.

Costume Design
Maybe I just can’t in good faith pick “Alice in Wonderland” to win an Oscar, but it has been my experience that the historical costume dramas typically claim this award. Guess which Best Picture nominee is also a nominated costume drama: “The King’s Speech.”

Film Editing
“The Social Network” thrives on creating seamless shifts between past and present, different perspectives and different tones. It keeps pace with Sorkin and really makes the Facebook movie come alive.

Foreign Language Film
The movie everyone has heard of is “Biutiful,” but that’s always the worst way to select a winner in this category. “In a Better World” from Denmark won the Golden Globe, but there is some festival buzz surrounding the French Canadian “Incendies.”

Makeup
It goes to the one with the most of it, so “The Wolfman.”

Best Original Score
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s “Social Network” score was by far the most effective, and it is certainly a front runner. But don’t count out Alexandre Desplat for “King’s Speech,” who (1) gave a more classical entry into the category, (2) is part of the leading film and (3) is an actual composer with his fourth Oscar nomination.

Original Song
The nominees are weak this year, so the best bet is Randy Newman’s “We Belong Together” for “Toy Story 3.”

Documentary Short Subject
This is basically a shot in the dark, but of all the nominees, “Strangers No More” seems most up the Academy’s alley.

Short Film (Animated)
The most widely seen of these nominees is Pixar’s “Day and Night,” and it is a good one.

Short Film (Live Action)
Here’s another shot in the dark, but I’m going with “Wish 143,” about a sort of Make-a-Wish-Foundation movie.

Sound Editing
The winner is typically the biggest, baddest, loudest action movie. “Tron: Legacy” is nominated, but bet on “Inception.”

Sound Mixing
See Sound Editing: “Inception.”

Visual Effects
The Academy may respond to the 3-D of “Alice in Wonderland,” but “Inception” made Paris fold in on itself.