Anything is possible in politics

If I’ve gotten any wisdom from the great teacher that is life, it’s that you never know what’s coming.

Did I expect to attend IU? Did I expect my parents to divorce? Did I know I was going to fail my driving test three times?

Well maybe I had some hints (not knowing how to yield), but overall I didn’t expect any of these things.

After studying politics for about three years, I’ve come to find life’s simple truths all too valuable in gauging and analyzing political situations.

Just as the USSR and communism came crashing down at the end of the ’80s, unicorns may very well exist. Expecting the unexpected is key in analyzing politics.

A year ago, political analysts would have cast doubt on any kind of uprising in the calm state of Tunisia. An atmosphere of repression made protests in Tunisia rare. The authoritarian government used democracy as a disguise for legitimacy — rigging supposedly free elections for Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who in the last election won with more than 86 percent of the vote.

Furthermore, censorship of media made it difficult for any critique to expound on the nepotism and corruption of the government. In fact, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton even went so far as to compare the censorship of the media inside Tunisia to China. Take a moment to feel awe at how hard the government must work to silence millions of people.

Moving back to Tunisia, the government seems to have believed if it kept people from complaining about problems, the problems would go away. I have tried the same philosophy with homework, but it doesn’t work.

It seems the government of Tunisia just found this out because for three decades it appeared to work.

With civility maintained under repression, people turned toward the warm sunny beaches and luxury hotels instead of focusing on the country’s human rights abuses. The outsider seemingly fell for the same trap the government did; if there aren’t any protests, there must not be any problems.     

While these authoritarian rulers might argue for the utility of oppression, there is a keen balance that these rulers have to take when doing so. Clearly, it can be especially difficult for dictators to gauge this balance, particularly with many factors outside their control such as economic conditions, social trends and natural disasters.

In Tunisia, a combination of pressures finally broke the people. Political repression and economic issues were obvious factors. As politics goes, there could have been less visible pressures. I would even say perhaps Wikileaks played some role. But whatever the main and peripheral pressure, it just became too much.

Finally, the trigger to the contraption was the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi. On Dec. 17, 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest the government confiscation of his illegal fruit and vegetable stand. The destitute young man could barely make a living as a street vendor; apparently extortion by local authorities made his difficult job nearly impossible.

Surrounded by debt (yes, he had debt as a vendor, that’s how bad it was) and repressed by the very system meant to protect his interests, he had nothing left to turn to and decided to take his own life.

With the economy faltering, Tunisians found Bouazizi’s situation all too familiar, and people began to voice their frustrations with the government. People in Tunisia today are not only protesting the government, but also the lack of freedoms, economic disparity between regions, political repression and government corruption.

The protesters achieved a huge victory when Ben Ali left the nation and a warrant was issued for his arrest. Now with the military promising protection of the protestors, it seems nothing is preventing them from creating a new government.

I have slept well at night knowing that Tunisia might join with ranking democracies soon. Yes, that may include Islamist parties, and yes, the protests mean violence, but I feel what could result in Tunisia would be a vast improvement from what was before.

And if this news didn’t woo my liberal heart, news that protests are being followed in Gulf States did. The autocratic, freedom-deprived, U.S. supported, secular-but-Islamic countries across the Middle East have experienced unrest since this upset in Tunisia. From Yemen to Jordan to Egypt, people have decided to speak out against the many injustices.

Inspired by Tunisians, governments who haven’t been questioned in decades are now facing thousands of protesters demanding the abdication of life-long presidents. Particularly in Egypt where President Hosni Mubarak’s tight grip on the people has created a suffering society, the recent protests are huge.

I’m watching these like a hawk. Unfortunately I’ve just learned that security teams have begun a crackdown on Egyptian protestors. If they succeed in breaking up protesters, I’m guessing Mubarak will win and repression will become the status quo again. The next few days for Egypt are crucial.

While the protestors may not have one particular reason for protesting, they know the current system cannot and has not addressed their ills. This pursuit of freedom and democracy has been captured and romanticized around the world. Seeing it in action is truly remarkable.

It should make any politically active individual proud that this generation of Tunisians has decided to seize their own political destiny. Against all odds and against all speculation, these protestors have begun something that will go down in history. It just proves that in politics, never say never.

Anything in politics is possible.


E-mail: mdshowal@indiana.edu