Column: These Hoosiers are NIT-bound

Predicting an entire basketball season is difficult, if not a tad stupid.

Inevitably it will be wrong since there are so many variables — NCAA investigations of French basketball teams, for example — that throw a wrench in any season.

On that  note, let’s look into the crystal ball that is the 2010-11 men’s basketball season.

(I realize IU is two games into its season — an original prediction column last week got overshadowed by a guy named Cody Zeller. Second caveat — this prediction assumes Guy-Marc Michel is declared eligible sometime before Big Ten play begins).

Let’s dive in:

Nov. 16-26: Sure, Ferris State gave the Hoosiers a fright in the exhibition schedule, but IU isn’t alone in exhibition scares (see: Tennessee, Xavier). Despite the near embarrassment, the Hoosiers will rebound and sweep the first month’s slate of games. On paper, Wright State was probably the toughest opponent, and IU handled that team rather easily. IU moves to 6-0.

Dec. 1: The Hoosiers finally leave Bloomington for the Big Ten/ACC Challenge vs. Boston College. The Eagles lost one-third of their scoring (and their coach) from a 15-16 team last season and won’t be much better this year. IU picks up a (slightly) unexpected win on the road. IU (7-0) wins 67-64 and already eclipses its win total from two seasons ago.

Dec. 11: IU isn’t on Kentucky’s level yet. And the game is in Lexington. Even without Enes Kanter, Kentucky gets it done fairly easily. IU (8-1) suffers its first loss of the season, 82-63.

Dec. 22-23: A potential matchup against Steve Alford’s New Mexico team in Las Vegas would be enticing. IU will play Northern Iowa, and depending on the result, either New Mexico or Colorado. Any way you slice it, a split in Vegas seems likely. IU ends non-conference play with a deceptively good 11-2 record.

Dec. 27: Unlike last season, IU will open Big Ten play with a loss. Penn State features a veteran lineup with four seniors in the starting five that are used to Big Ten basketball. IU (11-3) loses 77-72.

Jan. 9: Fans start getting worried as IU drops its first four Big Ten games — Penn State, Ohio State, at Minnesota and at Northwestern — before students return from winter break. Any remaining thought of a surprise NCAA Tournament appearance for IU is quieted. An NIT berth is still quite alive, though. IU falls to 11-6.

Jan. 15: IU snaps its losing streak against a weak Michigan team. IU (12-6) wins 68-56.

Jan. 23: The Hoosiers avenge two bad losses to Iowa last year with a win in Iowa City against a team that is still adjusting to a new coach. IU moves to 13-7.

Jan. 27, 30: A two-game stretch against an experienced Illinois squad battling for a Big Ten title and perennial contender Michigan State will be difficult. IU drops both by more than 10 points and moves to a 13-9 record with a 2-7 start in the Big Ten.

Feb 2, 5: IU picks up a key win against Minnesota at home but then turns around with a bad loss at home to Iowa, bringing back memories of the last two seasons. The Hoosiers now stand at 14-10.

Feb 8-20: IU wins one game (at Michigan) in a three-game stretch that also includes contests against Northwestern at home and at Purdue. IU drops to 15-12 on the season.

Feb. 23: Yes, Purdue will be good. But an even better Purdue team almost lost at Assembly Hall last year. IU fans will enjoy this win. IU (16-12) wins 76-75.

March 5: After the Purdue win, IU struggles against the Big Ten’s elite to end the regular season on a three-game slide. IU finishes the regular season 16-15 with a 5-13 conference record. Even an improved Hoosier team will struggle in the best conference in college basketball.

But playing a first-day Big Ten Tournament game, IU will get one win and post a 17-16 record on the season.

Hello, NIT.


E-mail: nmhart@indiana.edu