La Nina system might resolve Indiana drought

Trees are bare and brown, and Griffy Lake is drying up, but La Nina might be the answer Indiana residents are looking for as a solution to this year’s drought.

La Nina — a temporary cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean — will likely bring warmer and wetter winter weather to parts of the central U.S., including Indiana.

While El Nino is characterized by unusually warm temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, La Nina is characterized by unusually cooler temperatures in the water, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website.

However, both can be responsible for catastrophic weather conditions.

Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, said in a press release on Oct. 21 that La Nina effects are already being seen and will strengthen and persist through the winter months.

This will mean a warmer overall winter atmosphere, at times too warm to form snow. The resulting precipitation will manifest itself in the form of rain when this happens.

Susan Buchanan, spokeswoman for the National Weather Service, said the Ohio River Valley area, which includes Indiana, is likely to see increased storms and possibly more flooding in the spring.

“A moderate to strong La Nina pattern is in place, and what that means for the Ohio Valley area is that NOAA expects a warmer and wetter than average winter,” Buchanan said.

Because of the possibility of there being too much moisture replenishment, instances of flooding might become an area for concern, said John Kwiatkowski, science officer for the Indiana Weather Forecast Office of the National Weather Service.

Kwiatkowski said the effects of La Nina are already being seen, with milder days this fall and drier than normal current weather conditions.

He foresees this warm temperature trend continuing through winter. The prospect of heavy rains along with moderate snowfall will help to replenish the moisture lost during this year’s drought, he said, but the amount of precipitation is unknown to the NWS.
“It could be just a rainy winter, but there will certainly be some snow,” Kwiatkowski said. “This could have some beneficial effects since it’s been much drier than normal lately. A wetter than normal winter would give us a chance to recover from that.”

Kwiatkowski said on the other hand there might be too much moisture replenishment, leading to probable flood conditions in the spring. 

However, he advised that Indiana residents be aware of the cold weather coming soon, because the effects of La Nina won’t be fully understood until the weather pattern has run its course.

“Anybody who lives here should be aware of cold days,” he said. “You still want to be ready for cold weather and have a snow shovel and salt for sidewalks because we’ll probably have some snow and ice. And there’ll probably be some really cold days, so people need cold weather gear just like always.”

— Amanda Jacobson