WEEKEND’s official Oscar picks

This year’s Oscar ceremony is set up to be one of the most and least exciting of all time.

In terms of history, we’ve got 10 Best Picture nominees for the first time since “Casablanca,” the second animated film ever nominated, the fourth female director ever nominated, the second black director ever nominated, two Oscar hosts and the front-runners for Best Picture include two of the lowest and highest grossing films in the award’s existence.

But picking the winners? This sounds easy. Despite its high status, the odds are almost completely against “Avatar” in favor of “The Hurt Locker.” The acting categories have all been locked up for months, in one case since February. Animated feature, Documentary, Foreign Language and Adapted Screenplay are all obvious picks. And history is likely going to favor Kathryn Bigelow.

Never before have I been as ripe for failure as I am right now.

Best Picture

“The Hurt Locker” represents so much in terms of academy values. It is a modern, American film that will make audiences comfortable with the Iraq War genre. It is an amazing action movie that stands in the face of the tent-pole blockbusters and is an example of how these films should be made. And it is an underdog independent film that represents quality and dignity in filmmaking.
Dark Horse: There’s a little film called “Avatar” that still has a great chance. It represents Academy values like spectacle, cultural significance, mass appeal and is possibly the future of cinema.

Best Actor

As his fifth nomination without a win, Jeff Bridges’ Oscar will be long overdue. His performance as Bad Blake in “Crazy Heart” is soulful, vulnerable and masterful.
Dark Horse: Jeremy Renner of “The Hurt Locker” could help this film go for a massive sweep, and he would take it purely because of the swagger in his step.

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz won Best Actor at Cannes last summer and never stopped winning. Waltz’s performance as Col. Hans Landa is one of the most awesomely complex performances of the decade. He’s a sure thing.

Best Actress

If in December you told me Sandra Bullock would get an Oscar nomination, I would’ve patted your head and slowly inched away. Today, she’s on a winning streak. Bullock’s Leigh Ann Tuohy could be this year’s Erin Brockovich.
Dark Horse: With her 16th nomination, Meryl Streep is as much a tour-de-force as ever.

Best Supporting Actress

In the supporting category, the academy loves a good villain, and there was no one better than Mo’Nique as the sadistic mother in “Precious.” It’s her Oscar to lose.
Dark Horse: Anna Kendrick or Vera Farmiga from “Up in the Air” are the biggest threat, but I think they’ll split the vote.

Best Animated Film

Might I remind you that “Up” is not only nominated for Best Picture but is also a Pixar movie?
Dark Horse: It could go to one of the stop-motion animated films, “Coraline” or “Fantastic Mr. Fox.”

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow is the first woman with a shot at winning this prestigious award, and she already has the Directors Guild Award for Best Picture to boot.
Dark Horse: James Cameron spent 12 years making “Avatar,” and now he’s put out a product that is revolutionary.

Best Original Screenplay

This is the closest race at the Oscars, with all five nominees being truly worthy. Maybe out of love for the film and the man, I have to hand it to Quentin Tarantino and “Inglourious Basterds.” In addition to a sort of lifetime achievement/consolation prize award, the academy will recognize “Basterds” as a very wordy, dialogue-heavy screenplay.
Dark Horse: There’s a precise intensity that goes into Mark Boal’s “The Hurt Locker” screenplay, and if the film has any shot of winning the Best Picture prize, the gossip seems to be that a screenplay award will go with it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

“Up in the Air” was the front-runner in the Best Picture race until “Avatar” came out, so now this will have to serve as a consolation prize. Its wit and ability to pull its plot right from today’s headlines makes it a shoo-in.
Dark Horse: “Precious” is the next best of the bunch, but the surprise nominee “In the Loop” is just as clever as “Up in the Air.”

Art Direction: “Avatar”

Cinematography: “Avatar” for its use of 3D
Dark Horse: “The Hurt Locker” for its action sequences, “Inglourious Basterds” for its classical style and “The White Ribbon” for its black & white.

Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”

Documentary (Feature): “The Cove”
Dark Horse: “Food, Inc.”

Documentary (Short Subject): “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”

Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”

Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon”

Makeup: “Star Trek”

Best Score: “Up”

Best Original Song: “The Weary Kind” for “Crazy Heart”

Short Film (Animated): “A Matter of Loaf and Death.” It’s a Wallace and Gromit short.

Short Film (Live Action): “The Door”

Sound Editing: “Avatar”

Sound Mixing: “Avatar”

Visual Effects: “Avatar”