Jay Leno – TV’s future?

Jay Leno could change television forever.

As sad as that sounds, it is the truth. When Leno’s new NBC program debuts later this month, media insiders will all be watching with vicious intent, and not because they love Leno’s middle-of-the-road “humor.”

They will be watching because a smorgasbord of terrible decisions has led NBC to give Leno his own 10 p.m. program, whose success could alter television networks’ programming approach.

Let’s flashback for a moment. The once-powerful NBC – you know, “Friends,” “Seinfeld” and “ER” – has struggled during the past few years.

The only programs NBC has been able to develop into successes since 2004 are “The Office,” “30 Rock” and “Heroes.” That’s it. Three shows in five years. The Peacock Network’s big boss Jeff Zucker is known more for his pleas for “More!” than anything else.

Zucker’s thought process usually goes like this: Audiences like one hour of “Biggest Loser?” Then they’ll love two hours of “Biggest Loser!” Tastemakers enjoy 30-minute episodes of “The Office?” They’ll just eat up “super-sized” episodes! 

Additionally, the moron in charge of developing new programs, Ben Silverman, never should have had the job in the first place and only got it because he was involved with the production company that adapted “The Office” for the United States.

Again, Silverman took a similar approach to developing programming as Zucker does: You loved our “Office” redo, so you will feel the same about “Bionic Woman” or “Knight Rider” reboots!

Meanwhile, NBC’s sister cable channels, USA and Bravo, have been developing one awesome show after another. Ratings for NBC continue to drop. Silverman ended up quitting this summer. They need help.

That’s where Leno comes in.

Back in 2004, NBC decided that Leno would probably want to retire in 2009, so they went ahead and gave Conan O’Brien “The Tonight Show.” But last year, rumblings began that Leno didn’t want to retire – because NBC brass intelligently never asked his plans in 2004 – and that ABC was courting him.

Scrambling to keep Leno from leaving and making the program look even more dumb than they already do, Zucker and his group whipped up an idea that would not only solve the Leno problem, but also help NBC in another area – its 10 p.m. timeslots during the week. Thus, “The Jay Leno Show” was born.

Leno’s new program fits NBC’s new programming mantra perfectly – programming for the margins. No longer is NBC going for big ratings (because they have no shot), but instead developing programming that will keep the bottom line safe. Of course, that was always a portion of the development process in television, but NBC is taking it to new lengths. Five hours of “Leno” will cost less than one hour of one scripted drama, which means NBC saves a crap load of money.

And if Leno’s show is successful, based on NBC’s new metrics, TV will be changed forever. The way things are these days, every network is looking to save money while still being successful. If Leno proves renting out 10 p.m. to low-cost variety-style programming, all hell might break loose.