Premature Speculation

A week ago today, Emmy voters announced their yearly slate of nominations that break my TV-loving heart on an annual basis. Though the Emmys are supposed to honor the best that television has to offer (and they do for the most part), too often great programs are glossed over for those with an Emmy pedigree (read: on HBO).
Nevertheless, I am not going to waste your time with another column complaining about something.

 Instead, why don’t we take a look at the biggest categories and do some way-too-early prognosticating? The full list of nominees can be found on the WEEKEND Watchers blog (idsnews.com/blogs/weekendwatchers) for your viewing pleasure, but here I’ll look at who should win and who will win in the most important categories.



Outstanding Drama Series
WILL WIN: “Mad Men”
SHOULD WIN: “Mad Men”

The prototypical “Emmy show” that is really about nothing but human suffering in a time when getting a divorce was taboo, “Mad Men” is too damn good to deny. It’s the critical darling, a simmering cultural phenomenon and probably one of the best 20 shows in TV history. Yeah, that’s good enough to win an Emmy. “Breaking Bad” and “Lost” are the other contenders.


Outstanding Comedy Series
WILL WIN: “30 Rock”
SHOULD WIN: “How I Met Your Mother”
The other Emmy darling, “30 Rock” is a near-lock to win its third straight Outstanding Comedy award, but the too-broad comedy and ridiculous amount of guest stars deployed in season three didn’t do it for me. And with “The Office” struggling and “Entourage” no longer funny, that leaves us “Mother,” which plays like “Friends” for guys with a brain.

Outstanding Lead Actor, Drama Series
WILL WIN: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
SHOULD WIN: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”

Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”) won last year and has a good shot to do so again, but Hamm’s somehow improved season two work deserves the award here. Shockingly, Hugh Laurie of “House” has never won, but with the category so packed with “more important” shows, his chances are getting slimmer.

Outstanding Lead Actress, Drama Series
WILL WIN: Glenn Close, “Damages”
SHOULD WIN: Elizabeth Moss, “Mad Men”

I really hate to keep lauding “Mad Men,” but in a mostly weak category, I’d love to see the much-improved Moss get the award. The legendary Glenn Close, last year’s winner, was just as good this season. If she wins, I don’t see anyone being upset. Sally Field (“Brothers and Sisters”) could win too, sadly.

Outstanding Lead Actor, Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
SHOULD WIN: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”

The most frustrating category around, with a few great performances not even nominated (Zachary Levi of “Chuck” the most glaring example) keeps things basically the way they were – Alec Baldwin winning easily. Steve Carell was fine this year, and Jim Parsons (“Big Bang Theory”) was really awesome, but his show isn’t quite buzzworthy enough. Not to discredit Baldwin, who was born to play his character.

Outstanding Lead Actress, Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Tina Fey, “30 Rock”
SHOULD WIN: Toni Collette, “United States of Tara”

Another really unappealing category, but I refuse to give the nod to the overexposed and possibly overrated Fey, who is fine, but not worthy of back-to-back wins. Thus, Collette rises above the rest of the scrap heap due to her multifaceted performance of a woman dealing with dissociative identity disorder.

Without space-filling analysis, my thoughts on the Supporting categories:

Outstanding Supporting Actor, Drama Series
WILL WIN: Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad”
SHOULD WIN: Michael Emerson, “Lost”

Outstanding Supporting Actress, Drama Series
WILL WIN: Dianne Wiest, “In Treatment”
SHOULD WIN: Rose Byrne, “Damages”

Outstanding Supporting Actor, Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Tracy Morgan, “30 Rock”
SHOULD WIN: Neil Patrick Harris, “How I Met Your Mother”

Outstanding Supporting Actress, Comedy Series
WILL WIN: Amy Poehler, “Saturday Night Live”
SHOULD WIN: Kristin Chenoweth, “Pushing Daisies”

Come September, we can pull these out and I’ll look like a fool. But when “Mad Men” and “30 Rock” win most of their categories, remember I told you so.