Looking forward to 2009

From union strikes to decreased album sales and TV ratings, 2008 played out more like a series of industrial catastrophes than a typical period full of critical highs and lows.

All the downtrodden stories that weighed down the industry in 2008 were saved by two events: the presidential election and the release of “The Dark Knight.” Both those cultural phenomena will be nonfactors in 2009, and there appears to be nothing nearly as important coming to replace them.

We hope that we have provided you with the people, events and pop culture that have defined 2008. Now here’s a look forward to what could shape in the next 12 months.

The effects of a sluggish economy

The effects of the atrocious economic conditions have yet to disrupt the entertainment industry on as wide a scale as they have in others industries.

But in 2009, the economic downturn will rear its head. Media conglomerate Viacom just announced layoffs of more than 800 employees, NBC Universal is cutting $500 million from next year’s budget and Viacom’s Paramount Pictures is shrinking its slate from 25 movies a year to 20.

The cost to make blockbuster films and high-priced TV shows has increased over time and next year seems like it could be the time, that it could all come to a head.

Especially considering that people aren’t watching TV shows as much live, therefore decreasing the ad revenue most networks are getting.

The film industry might not be hit as hard, but one would imagine that if audiences have less money in their pockets, they will be unwilling to pay $12 to watch a movie. 2008 looks to be only the fifth year since 1980 that will have a total box office return decrease from the previous year, and with a lackluster slate of flicks coming, 2009 will only further the problems.

The music industry will continue to suffer not only because of the financial crisis, but because it doesn’t know how to re-invent itself quite yet. Record sales will only drop more, and increasing concert ticket sales won’t work as a stop-gap measure.

A depressing lack of capstone releases

There’s another reason why the industry will probably face more layoffs and cutbacks: 2009 doesn’t have anything epic to offer audiences.

On the film side of things, there’s nothing nearly as cool as “The Dark Knight” on the horizon. The year will bring us the newest “Harry Potter” flick, a revamped “Star Trek” and a slew of dumb sequels: “Wolverine,” “Fast & Furious” and “Angels & Demons.”

The only film with buzzworthy possibilities is “Watchmen,” but it’s unclear whether or not mainstream audiences will enjoy it or the fanboys can deal with the adjustments made to the film version.

Measuring what will happen in the TV industry at this point is impossible, but if the last few years are any indication, the new shows that will make it to air will most likely be either horrible or fail to find an audience. Since the glory season of 2004-05 that gave us “Lost,” “House,” “The Office,” “Grey’s Anatomy” and “Desperate Housewives,” there has been next to nothing that has made it on the air that has been successful or good.

Another strike looms

We all know how much havoc the Writers Guild of America strike reeked on the entertainment industry, and the one by the Screen Actors Guild could have similar effects.

Though the SAG has ignored strike talks since the contract ended in June, SAG brass recently called for strike authorization because they cannot come to terms with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers.

Though they probably have more money than the writers, actors are also probably more willing not to work in hopes of winning this Hollywood power struggle. This means the 100-day writer’s strike will pale in comparison to what could happen in 2009 with this SAG strike.

If and when the strike happens, we’ll see production cease across the board. Just like last time, the TV industry will be irrevocably damaged, but the film side will take a bigger hit this time. Film projects will be delayed for an extended period of time, causing the next few years to be bare in terms of high-profile releases.

We have had a rough year, but 2009 could be much worse.

The entertainment industry will finally feel the effects of the economy, and internal problems will only multiply those issues tenfold. In the time audiences need an escape most, the entertainment world could fail to give it to us.