The rise of John McCain

"Hope” means something different for John McCain.

It means surviving five years as a prisoner of war and fighting cancer. After a failed campaign in 2000, it means the chance of winning in 2008.

All of these are things the Republican presidential nominee has hoped for, and only one has not yet worked in his favor.

John Karaagac, a lecturer in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at IU who wrote “John McCain: An Essay in Military and Political History” in 2000, has studied both McCain’s political and military lives. But Karaagac was doubtful McCain would win the 2008 primary. Yet, staying true to his fighting nature, McCain won.

“I think he’s much more the come-from-behind story than Barack Obama,” Karaagac said. “There’s a tension in McCain’s life. I think he is both a kind of rebel but very much a team player at the same time.”

Prisoner of War

The fact that McCain would be the oldest president-elect in U.S. history has become a tired point. The 72-year-old’s story really started when he was deployed to Vietnam in 1967 (when Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama was 6 years old). Many now know that McCain was a prisoner of war for more than five years after his plane was shot down and he was taken captive.

His arms were broken; his body was beaten. And though he was offered release early because of his father’s rank in the Navy, McCain refused.

He was finally released in 1973, later retiring from the Navy and joining the U.S. House of Representatives. He was elected to the Senate in 1986.

But even Karaagac is willing to admit that “being a veteran does not make you qualified in itself.”

“I think he’s been tested in ways that Barack Obama has not. I think that could potentially make him a better leader,” Karaagac said, “but you have to make the case.”

His first try

In September 1999 McCain entered the 2000 race for president, running against Texas Gov. George W. Bush. But after the South Carolina primary, he didn’t have much of a chance. Bush had run a “very harsh campaign against him,” said Ted Carmines, a professor of political science.

“When he lost South Carolina, he was done,” he said. 

By the following March he had dropped his bid for the nomination after being defeated in many contests around the country.

It’s not 2000 anymore

It was a different game in 2007, when the Arizona senator decided to relaunch his bid for president. Just months earlier, he voiced support for the surge in Iraq, which many were against.

By the summer of 2007, most had counted him out. His expensive campaign was nearly out of money, and half of his staff had left. He assumed the role of the underdog, but he kept going.

“His candidacy had basically hit the rocks,” Carmines said. Without much money or publicity, many thought he might even have to drop out of the race.

But a primary victory came in New Hampshire against Mitt Romney, giving his campaign a deep revival. Next came South Carolina, the same state that essentially ended his run in 2000. By the time Super Tuesday came around in February 2008, McCain was the new frontrunner.

Finally, after Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee dropped out on March 4, McCain claimed the nomination in a historic comeback.

“Other candidates just faded and McCain seemed to surge,” Karaagac said. “It‘s not so much he won on principle, but he outlasted them.”

Because Republican primaries are winner-take-all, as opposed to the Democrats who split the votes proportionately, McCain won a lot of primary elections without necessarily winning the popular vote, Carmines said. 

“The story basically is Huckabee and Romney split the conservative vote, and McCain took some conservative vote but mainly the non-conservative vote, and that was enough for him to win the nomination,” Carmines said.

In his nomination acceptance speech in September at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., McCain emphasized his common theme to always fight for Americans.
 
“I don’t mind a good fight. For reasons known only to God, I’ve had quite a few tough ones in my life,” McCain said at the convention. “But I learned an important lesson along the way. In the end, it matters less that you can fight; what you fight for is the real test.”

Now, McCain fights to end the war in Iraq – but in victory. He came back in 2008 on principle and really defended the surge, which has helped him, Karaagac said. 

“He was the one person who really defended it,” Karaagac said of the surge. “He has been, in some sense, a comeback artist. He has been a survivor in his life. The fact is he was not even supposed to be in the race as the Republican candidate. No one seemed to think it was going to be as close.”
 
Election 2008

Now McCain finds himself on the eve of a historic election: Either his running mate will become the first female vice-president or his opponent will be the first black president. But for McCain, it’s simply his next battle.

In times of “extreme Bush fatigue,” as Karaagac calls it, and with a faltering economy, McCain has to fight harder than Obama, simply because of the circumstances against him.

“Obama’s just sitting back and letting all these tensions in the Republican Party accrue for McCain,” Karaagac said.

Karaagac admits that the economic situation has changed the game of the election “drastically,” adding that the Democratic Party is automatically favored because they weren’t the party in power when the economic mess came to fruition.

“I think Obama’s task is easier,” he said. “I do think Obama has not sold the deal by any stretch of the imagination. ... This crisis changes it simply because (McCain) needs a convincing argument, and he doesn’t have one. And Barack Obama does not need it in the same way.”

Still, the Republican Party’s famous fighter isn’t giving up just yet.

“In the Republican Party, there’s a psychology of ‘wait your turn,’” Karaagac said. “They are a little more hierarchical than the Democrats. ... I think the feeling was that it was McCain’s turn.”

McCain will have his last chance at getting his turn Tuesday.

“You just can’t compete over having so many strikes against you,” Karaagac said. “You can come back from the dead only so many times.”