Professor says recent Israeli escalation was predictable

Continued Israeli advancement into the Palestinian-controlled Gaza Strip in response to the kidnapping of Cpl. Gilad Shalit has one IU professor saying he isn't surprised. \nFresh from a 10-day trip to Israel, Rafael Reuveny, an associate professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs, said conditions building between the two sides have made an escalation like this very predictable. \n"With Israel's unilateral disengagement of the settlements and with Hamas coming into power, it was just a matter of time before something like this would occur," Reuveny said. "That was just the spark."\nReuveny said economic conditions in Palestine are an important factor contributing to the conflict. Because they have such a dense population, Palestinians in the West Bank face a large unemployment crisis, forcing them to rely on Israel for jobs, fuel and electricity while being separated by the new security wall Israel has established, he said. \n"It is like a prison for them," he said. "They are completely dependent on Israel."\nIt is this kind of atmosphere that Reuveny said makes it easy for the Palestinian people to resort to violence and terrorism, as they have few alternatives. \n"They are aware of the consequences and they just don't mind," he said. "They are just so desperate."\nReuveny said some kind of prisoner exchange involving an unharmed Cpl. Shalit for Palestinian prisoners is likely a key to resolving this conflict. Israel is reluctant to give in to these demands, afraid it could embolden Hamas and other terrorists to carry out similar acts, Reuveny said. He added that he thinks Hamas would follow any kind of peace offering "to the letter" and be willing to embrace a potential cease fire. This could work, he said, if Israel agrees to release the prisoners at a later date to separate the exchange from the kidnapping. \nConvinced that escalation will continue, Reuveny said he doesn't see an end any time soon. \n"I think that in the short run the next days and weeks it will be worse than what we have now," he said.\nInstead of a peaceful solution, Rueveny said he predicts Palestinian suicide attack attempts to intensify and gain success, which will prompt an even tougher response from Israel. \n"There will be no end," he said. "After a while it will just continue and no one will know who even started this"