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Friday, April 24
The Indiana Daily Student

Baseball predictions left me picked off

Were the Mets worse than the Tigers last season?

Take responsibility for your actions.\nI learned that from my parents. Or was that Judge Judy? Or the coach on "Playmakers?" Regardless, if I have made one contribution to sportswriting, it's that I have not only been crazy enough to make predictions but also crazy enough to analyze them at season's end to see how I did. Referring back to my March 26 column when I predicted the baseball season's outcome, I found that it was a mixed bag.\nWHAT I SAID "The Mets will be better because they can't possibly be worse."\nWHAT HAPPENED: The Mets were worse, dropping from 75 wins in 2002 to 66 wins in 2003. In fact, given the money they spent on the team and all the inherent advantages of playing in New York City, the Mets may have embarrassed themselves more than the historically bad Tigers.\nTom Glavine had his worst year in more than a decade, and the team suffered numerous serious injuries to expected stalwarts like Mike Piazza, Mo Vaughn and Cliff Floyd.\nWHAT I SAID "The Diamondbacks have Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling but not much in the rotation otherwise."\nWHAT HAPPENED: Brandon Webb had a Rookie-of-the-Year-type season -- yes, better than Dontrelle Willis, but Johnson and Schilling spent much of the year hurt, and the Diamondbacks finished in third.\nWHAT I SAID "(The AL East) has had the same finishing order five straight years. This year will make it six."\nWHAT HAPPENED: I got it right. Once again, it was the Yankees followed by the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles and Devil Rays.\nWHAT I SAID: "The White Sox will finish second, which given the quality of the other three teams in the division will be borderline humiliating."\nWHAT HAPPENED:: The White Sox did finish second, and it was somewhat humiliating. The club fired manager Jerry Manuel as soon as the season ended, and the fans ripped the players for lack of heart. They didn't win even though Esteban Loaiza might have won the Cy Young Award.\nThe difference might have been the trade for Roberto Alomar. He's pretty much finished, but the White Sox sure got fooled. His numbers were practically identical to his Mets numbers, but all of a sudden, some thought Alomar was a great player again because the White Sox were in contention.\nEven at that, just a mediocre year from players like Paul Konerko and Billy Koch might have done it for them. But that didn't happen either.\nWHAT I SAID "The wildcard Red Sox will knock out the A's and then the Twins in the American League Championship Series … The Red Sox will then beat the Giants for their first world championship in 85 years."\nWHAT HAPPENED: I got all four AL playoff teams right, and I had the Red Sox beating the A's in the Division Series. The Twins won one game against the Yankees before the Yankees starting pitching took over.\nMy biggest fault was that I forgot the Red Sox were cursed. Once again, that's what happens when you try to inject logic into the proceedings.\nWHAT I SAID "Moving Craig Biggio from second base to center field will be the Astros' downfall."\nWHAT HAPPENED: Yes and no. Biggio had a better year than expected with the glove, but the downfall occurred due to Biggio's hitting. His strikeouts are increasing, his walks are declining, his power has leveled off and he's not a stolen base threat anymore. The Astros will have to make some big moves if they want to contend again next year.\nWHAT I SAID "I have Rockies centerfielder Preston Wilson and shortstop Jose Hernandez striking out 348 times between them, their bat-waving providing a natural air conditioning."\nWHAT HAPPENED: The Rockies did finish in fourth as predicted. Wilson and Hernandez struck out "only" 316 times between them, and before the season was over, Hernandez had also played for the Cubs and Pirates. Meanwhile, Wilson made the strikeouts sufferable by leading the NL with 141 RBIs.\nWHAT I SAID "The Marlins will lead the majors in stolen bases and thereby prove that both they and the stolen bases are overrated."\nWHAT HAPPENED: Again, I was partially right. The Marlins did lead the majors in stolen bases, but they didn't finish fourth; they finished second.\nI still don't think they won because of their speed necessarily. They won the World Series because guys who are not speedy, namely Ivan Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera, joined the team and solidified the middle of the lineup. Josh Beckett had a little to do with it too.\nNow they were responsible.

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