Professor helps keep beaches open

A new bacterial forecasting system developed by Greg Olyphant, associate professor of geological sciences, has made it possible for cities to accurately predict potentially hazardous bacteria levels along Lake Michigan. The system may potentially eliminate unnecessary beach closings, which have plagued lakefront cities such as Chicago and Milwaukee. \nOlyphant's system uses weather characteristics such as recent rainfall, wind, lake levels, air and water temperature and sunshine to estimate E-coli levels in the water as well as on the beach. What makes the model so valuable is its timeliness, Olyphant said. The new computerized approach can forecast E-coli levels within just three hours. \n"The variables are observable on a real-time basis," Olyphant said. "We plug the numbers into the forecasting model and we can make a decision on the basis of that." \nCurrently, health officials evaluate water safety by collecting samples and sending them to a lab to be cultured. Olyphant claims this process can often take more than a day and does not provide reliable information about future bacteria levels. \n"There is no good statistical relationship between the bacteria levels yesterday and the levels today," Olyphant said. \nLast summer, Olyphant developed and tested forecasting models for the cities of Chicago and Milwaukee. The models accurately determined whether to close beaches 81 percent of the time in Chicago and 83 percent of the time, 75 out of 90 days, in Milwaukee. \nClay Fuqua, assistant professor of biology, said detecting E-coli in water is a strong indication that other dangerous bacteria such as proteus and yersinia are present. \n"Those pathogens are very well correlated with E-coli tainted water supplies, but they are hard to detect directly," Fuqua said. "The numbers you need to get sick are below the levels that would be easily detected. (Testing for E-coli) is an indirect way of determining that there are other, more hazardous microbes as well." \nAlthough most E-coli strands that one might encounter on a beach are non-virulent, Fuqua said any level of E-coli is considered to be a health hazard and, if ingested, may result in nausea and moderate diarrhea. The federal limit of E-coli for safe swimming is currently 235 colony forming units (cfu) per 100 mL of water. \nIn 2001, there were 601 Lake Michigan beach closings due to tainted water, eclipsing the previous record by nearly 200. Illinois alone experienced 339 closings last year, compared to 10 in 1994. \n"Beach closings from bacterial pollution are reaching disturbing highs," said Lake Michigan Federation Executive Director Cameron Davis in a recent press release. \nAccording to the Federation, the increase in closings was concurrent with the release of nearly 2 billion gallons of untreated sewage from Chicago wastewater facilities into the lake. In Indiana, closings and advisories rose to a record-high 92, largely due to the Chicago sewage discharges. \nThe beach closings may be symptomatic of poor sewage management. Olyphant said our contaminates are not being handled in "the most optimum ways," noting that E-coli levels can rise precipitously during the peak of a storm, perhaps up to 30,000 cfu's per mL. \n"When a storm occurs, sewage facilities cannot handle the amount of sewage," Olyphant said. "(Instead) they are willing to pay the fine and let the human sewage end up in the lake. The people with the money in the sewage plants can manipulate things away from the direction of public safety. \n"There has been a system in place for years in which they keep track of how much water is bypassed; they pay a fee based on how much is bypassed. I would guess the estimates are a bit on the low side."\nSince the completion of testing, Milwaukee has implemented the forecasting model at two beaches. The models have been linked to a Web site and telephone hotline, allowing beach-goers access to up-to-date information about waterfront bacteria levels. Aside from increasing beach health, officials hope the model will reduce the economic loss that accompanies unnecessary closures, which have been frequent due to the primitive nature of past forecasting techniques. \nStrapped for funds, Chicago was unable to continue the project, Olyphant said. Olyphant has also been contacted by officials in New Zealand, Australia, Boston and Santa Monica who are searching for ways to solve their own waterfront quagmires. \nOlyphant's findings are slated to be published later this year in the international journal Environmental Monitoring and Assessment.