Political strategies reemerge

The beast did not die. You may have been wondering where it went after Sept. 11, but slowly it's making a come back. Like a bear awakening from hibernation, it's still soft and quiet, but if you listen closely enough, you\'ll hear it. It's the sound of politics.\nJames Carville, Bob Shrum and Stanley Greenberg have written a memo on Democratic strategy for the 2002 and 2004 elections. Carville engineered former President Bill Clinton's 1992 electoral victory. I'm no fan of Carville\'s ideology, but I have tremendous respect for his political genius. When he gives advice, politicians of every leaning should listen up.\nPresident George W. Bush's strong approval ratings, they say, shouldn't hinder their party's chances. They argue Americans are more receptive to Democratic arguments about government activism. Moreover, a war on "fundamentalism" raises the importance of "tolerance," "freedom of choice," and "freedom of religion" for voters. They write, "Religious fundamentalism and fanaticism are uncomfortable with the life choices and gender roles at the center of American life." It's not hard to paint Republicans as religious fundamentalists either.\nInterestingly, the Democratic strategists don't see much beef behind the President's popularity: "While George W. Bush is popular, voter doubts are close to the surface. We should not give voice to these doubts in this period, but we should be prepared to highlight issues that allow those doubts to emerge later." They go on: "Bush may be in over his head"; "Bush's budget policies may produce deficits and hurt the economy long-term"; "Bush is bad on the environment"; "Bush always sides with big business and powerful interests." Considering the source, we can bet on these arguments surfacing more as the 2002 elections get under way.\nStill, Republicans have long been the party of defense and national security, and Carville et al recognize this. But they aren't worried about it for two reasons. First, their polling indicates that voters want the president to concentrate on fighting terrorism but want Congress to focus on domestic concerns, where they believe Democrats have an advantage. Health care and the environment are still winning Democratic issues. And especially since voters assign the president and Congress different tasks, Democrats may be able to "separate(e) House Republicans from the President." They also think the more important political question is whether voters see the Democrats as being just as patriotic as Republicans -- and they are convinced from the polls that voters do.\nPolitical historians will be the first to note, however, that the economy will likely be the biggest factor in 2002 and 2004, and on that front the strategists don't see a clear winner. They write, "The economy is emerging as a major issue for next year, but the Democrats do not yet have the advantage. Public confidence in the economy will likely erode further, but Democrats need to articulate strong and distinctive economic policies." Voters are skeptical of tax rebates, and instead prefer policies that promote investment (in other words, Republican tax cuts). This is another powerful weapon Bush should not shy away from using.\nOn the surface, we're a very unified and focused country. But politicians will always be politicians, and they're focused on the 2002 congressional elections and beyond. Carville and his Democratic friends have outlined a winning formula for the Democrats' success. Republicans must not only respond, but also be prepared to take the offensive.