Colts' playoff hopes on thin ice

The Indianapolis Colts are in trouble. Maybe they figured they would make the playoffs without much effort and not really have to start playing until late December.\nMaybe they didn't like being the favorite. Maybe last year was just an aberration and they're not as good as everyone thought. But whatever the case, the Colts have dropped three of their last four games and are now in danger of being excluded from postseason play.\nAt the beginning of the year, the Colts were considered the odds-on favorite to win the AFC East. Fans talked about the possibility of a Super Bowl appearance. But thanks to several close losses, Indy fans are now pretty quiet when it comes to Super Bowl talk. They are just hoping their team can stay afloat.\nSo what has happened? Well, several things. First, they haven't been able to play with any consistency. At times, they look unstoppable, and at other times they look more like the Bengals.\nSecond, they haven't beaten teams they should have. They dropped games at Chicago and Green Bay after falling behind early, only to have their comeback attempts fall short.\nAnd third, they haven't finished teams off when they have had leads. In week two, the Oakland Raiders outscored the Colts 31-7 in the second half in their dramatic come-from-behind victory. The New England Patriots came from behind to steal a win. Last week, the Miami Dolphins scored a touchdown with 1:10 to play to knock off the Colts at the RCA Dome.\nIt doesn't help the Colts' (7-5) chances that they have the league's toughest remaining schedule. They have to play the Jets (8-4) and Dolphins (9-3) on the road, with home games against the Bills (7-5) and Vikings (10-2). To have a legitimate shot at a playoff berth, Indianapolis needs to win three of those games, and even that won't guarantee them a spot.\nThe most important game of the Colts' season is next week at New York. The last wild-card spot will probably come down to a struggle between the Colts, Jets and Bills. New York also has a tough remaining schedule, but Indy cannot afford to go down two games in the wild-card chase with three games remaining. Indianapolis has beaten the Jets in their last four meetings, but the Colts haven't been particularly stellar in outdoor games in cold temperatures, exactly what they will get this Sunday at the Meadowlands. \nDon't get me wrong, I still think the Colts have the potential to win all four remaining games. They proved that last year and at times this year. On the other hand, they could catch a couple bad breaks, go 1-3, and end up watching the playoffs this year. They will need some help from other teams if they are going to participate in the playoffs.\nThe rest of the league\nIn the AFC, Oakland, Tennessee and Miami all look to be solid bets to win their divisions. But the race for the wild-card spots will be interesting. Baltimore and Denver have favorable remaining schedules that seem to give them the best chances of clinching berths. The Jets have a one-game lead on Buffalo and Indianapolis and should secure the final spot, but nothing is guaranteed in the NFL.\nIn the NFC, the playoff race is even more uncertain. Minnesota is the only division leader that looks to have their division wrapped up. In the East, Philadelphia's schedule and recent play should give them a division title. But don't count out the New York Giants if they can knock off Washington this weekend. Even if the Giants don't beat the Redskins, they will probably still make the playoffs as a wild card.\nThe St. Louis Rams and the New Orleans Saints are tied for the lead in the NFC West at 8-4. That's right, I did say the Saints, and they also have the easier schedule of the two. But Kurt Warner is coming back for the Rams. I expect St. Louis to finish strong and wrap up the division with a win at New Orleans on the last weekend of the season.\nFour teams will fight for the final two wild-card berths: New Orleans, Detroit (8-4), Washington (7-5) and Tampa Bay (7-5). The Lions have a tough schedule, but they have the tie-breaker over the Redskins. Tampa Bay won't survive a schedule that features a home game with St. Louis and road games against Miami and Green Bay. The Packers are 5-7 but everyone knows the Bucs don't win games in cold weather. I think New Orleans and Detroit will probably come out of the pack to complete the postseason puzzle.