No one can predict election, not even polls

In the final weeks of presidential campaigning, Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore are splitting hairs in the polls.\nFive national polling organizations have reported Bush would win by 2 percent of the popular vote if the election were held Oct. 22. But Bush lost his lead in the Gallup poll Tuesday at 45 to 46 percent in Gore's favor. Bush had been leading Gore in the Gallup Poll by more than a 4 percent margin of error since Oct. 17.\nJournalism professor David Weaver, who studies polling, said he wouldn't bet that the polls will accurately predict the next president of the United States.\n"One of the problems is the electoral system," Weaver said. "It's really difficult to tell whether they're going to carry the crucial states or not. Not only are they close, a lot of times closer than sampling error would allow you to predict, but also (polls are) not fool-proof indicators of how candidates are doing in the crucial states."\nPolitics.com electoral vote tracker Hal Bruno said Bush is ahead in 25 states, worth 213 electoral votes, and Gore has 186 potential votes in 13 states and Washington D.C.\nTwo hundred and seventy votes will be required to win the presidency. He reports 12 states worth 139 votes are too close to call, including Florida, where Bush's brother Jeb is governor. Bruno's report lists Bush's lead as increasing because of more support from previously undecided states.\nMany of the polls, which have been charting a Bush lead, are "tracking polls," or overnight polls conducted by telephone. Reuters/MSNBC and CNN/USA Today/Gallup are both tracking polls, which indicate a Bush lead. \nWeaver said inconsistencies in tracking polls arise because of questionable polling practices. He said good telephone polls will attempt to call someone three times before moving on to another phone number. He said overnight polls are conducted too quickly to allow more than one phone call and eliminate certain groups of people who are only home at specific times of day.\nPolitical science professor emeritus Leroy Rieselbach said another flaw in the polls lies in their inability to predict "intensity," or the motivation to vote for one candidate or another.\n"They are predicting how votes would divide, if the election was conducted on the day the poll was collected," Rieselbach said. "Polls fail to measure intensity of preference. Polls will not distinguish when somebody says, 'My granddaddy would roll over in his grave if I vote Republican.'"\n"(Also) the polls have to worry about the sample. Most of these polls now try to weed out people who won't vote. You can never be entirely sure who is going to go out and vote on election day."\nRegardless of whether the polls predict the next president of the United States, most polls still indicate the closest presidential election since Ronald Reagan beat incumbent Jimmy Carter in 1980. Rieselbach said the Republican strategy is giving Gore a run for his money.\n"Given that Gore surely has an advantage in terms of experience, in terms of knowing the issues, the Republicans have adopted a strategy of broader, softer ethical issues," Rieselbach said. "My argument is, broadly put, whoever defines the turf on which the campaign is fought has a high likelihood of doing better, winning"