Bet you didn't know...
- That in two games, IU coach Tom Crean has used 45 different 5-man lineups.
- That of those 45 lineups, 10 of the 5-man lineups have a negative plus/minus score.
- That of those 10 negative lineups, Derek Elston is in eight of them.
- And in the 10 most effective lineups (per plus/minus), Elston is in just three.
I don't mean to pick on Elston. Instead, throughout the season, my plan is to regularly dive inside IU's box score and find trends such as those.
There are a few things that I will regularly track - player plus/minus, 5-man lineup plus/minus, and player efficiency. Of course, after two games, such stats are a bit skewed. Take any simple player efficiency formula (i.e. I'm no John Hollinger), and Taylor Wayer comes out on top right now since his per-40-minute stat line would be 60 points per game and 20 rebounds per game.
With that being said, let's look at stats from the season's first two games.
Player Efficiency
The player efficiency formula I will use for the season is the following: {[(Points+Rebounds+Assists+Blocks+Steals) - (Missed FGs+Missed FTs+Turnovers)]/Minutes}*100.
As the person who proposed a slightly different version said, this formula works on the 10-90 rule (10 percent of the effort of the PER with 90 percent of the benefit). Thus, while maybe not quite as effective, it's pretty darn close to determining the most efficient players on the court. And some simple Excel functions compute these stats easily.
Here's how the Hoosiers stack up after two games (for players on the court for 15+ minutes).
1. Christian Watford - 84.5
2. Maurice Creek - 58.3
3. Derek Elston - 51.7
4. Verdell Jones - 44.4
5. Jordan Hulls - 43.4
6. Tom Pritchard - 41.2
7. Victor Oladipo - 31.1
8. Jeremiah Rivers - 29.6
9. Daniel Moore - 19.2
Honestly, these numbers don't mean much - yet. Eventually, trends will develop. At one point last December, there was plenty of talk about Derek Elston's need for more playing time...and this formula listed Elston as IU's second-most efficient player.
Team plus/minus
This is the category most fascinating to me. And it's pretty simple - calculating the plus/minus of 5-man lineups on the court. Like any category this early in the season, trends are only just starting.
Except for the starting lineup (which has been on the court for 14 minutes and 46 seconds), no 5-man lineup has played more than 3 minutes, 10 seconds together on the court.
The starting lineup is at +7. The lineup of Capobianco-Jones-Moore-Oladipo-Watford is at +6 - those five were on the court in the first half against Wright State when the score jumped from 13-10 to 19-10. And that's the only action those five have seen together.
The worst 5-man lineup so far (which means little) is currently Capobianco-Hulls-Oladipo-Rivers-Sheehey at -3. But that lineup has been on the court for 1 minute, 35 seconds.
Player plus/minus
Like other categories, these trends are just beginning. So take the stats with a grain of salt (also, take them with a grain of salt because I tabulated them by hand. I make that caveat, because Crean said Rivers had a +21 after the Florida Gulf Coast game, but I came up with +20.) I am interested to see if plus/minus eventually mirrors the player efficiency score.
Note the significant drop in +/- from 7th to 9th.
1. Christian Watford +33
2t. Maurice Creek +30
2t. Jordan Hulls +30
2t. Jeremiah Rivers +30
5t. Daniel Moore +26
5t. Tom Pritchard +26
7t. Verdell Jones +25
7t. Victor Oladipo +25
9. Bobby Capobianco +12
10. Derek Elston +7
11t. Kory Barnett +4
11t. Jeff Howard +4
11t. Will Sheehey +4
14. Taylor Wayer +3
