Hey folks,
The witching hour of this IU basketball season is almost upon us. After five months of wins, losses and every conceivable "help is on the way reference" the Big Ten Network could muster, the 2008-2009 season has come down to a four-day weekend in Indianapolis.
It's obviously likely the Hoosiers won't get far in the tournament, given their 1-17 mark in-conference. But in first-round opponent Penn State, Tom Crean's bunch faces a team that beat them by a combined 13 points and by just three at Penn State 11 days ago.
The Nittany Lions were considered a lock to win an at-large NCAA bid when Talor Battle's last-second heroics led them to a win over Illinois on March 5. Now they're firmly on the bubble after losing a two-overtime bout with Iowa, 75-67.
I'll get into predictions in the paper tomorrow, but for what it's worth, Pat Forde from ESPN predicted a first-round Hoosier win:
Call The Minutes crazy, but the endlessly plucky Hoosiers will upset Penn State in the opening round and then take on archrival Purdue in a quarterfinal that will get Conseco rocking.
We've never really been sure if the Minutes was crazy or sane -- Forde did pick mostly-bumbling Ohio State center B.J. Mullens as Big Ten Freshman of the Year over teammate William Buford -- but we're awfully tempted to follow that illustrious lead into forecasting victory. But first, let's set the table.
Tom Crean talked to assembled media yesterday, at which time he admitted he wasn't that optimistic about Devan Dumes' availability Thursday. His full quote:
I am not overly hopeful, but at the same time we are not ruling him out and we just have to continue to see how he heals up over the next few days and see what happens. But I don't want to give you any misleading hopes that it is a given that he will play. But I also don't want to rule him out in case something changes.
He also talked about his team's struggle to stop Jamelle Cornley, who's scored 27 points and grabbed eight rebounds in two games against IU this year. Talor Battle and Stanley Pringle have also been predictably thorny, averaging 14 and 14.5 points per game, respectively, against the Hoosiers.
To read the full text of Crean's pre-tournament visit with the media, click here. You can also access audio of the affair by clicking a link at the top of that page.
So back to Dumes: How much does he affect the Hoosiers? Well, he's IU's best on-ball defender, and their leading scorer. But he's also been a little bit streaky since his suspension following the Michigan State game, and more than that, he presumably wouldn't be 100 percent were he to play Thursday.
Conversely, however, Verdell Jones and Nick Williams have both come on strong at the end of the season. It's doubtful that not having Dumes somehow allowed them to thrive, but IU's younger players have certainly learned to fill the void when he's gone.
The fact is that the problem really hasn't ever been with one statistical column or another, but the Hoosiers' inability to fully take control of a game down the stretch.
So will they do that tomorrow night? Can the Hoosiers beat Penn State on their third try, setting up a rematch with Purdue that will have ESPN promoter types salivating? As the wise man said, we shall see.
