Hey folks,
I know it's far too early to start talking seriously about NCAA chances for the Hoosiers. So I'll do it anyway, because that's what us annoying journalists do.
The Hoosiers are currently 13-9 overall, and 6-4 in the Big Ten. Their non-conference record (7-5) isn't great, but they played three ranked teams in that stretch, beating one - West Virginia.
They have signature road wins at Purdue and Michigan State in conference, and beating Illinois at home looks more impressive after the Illini knocked off Ohio State in Champaign.
The way I see it, the Hoosiers need to win at least five more conference games - if not six - to be given serious consideration. They have five more home games, starting with Northwestern tomorrow night. The other four come against Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan and Penn State. The Hoosiers are 2-2 against those five teams this year, having lost on the road to Michigan and Ohio State and beating Northwestern and Michigan State. They have yet to play Penn State.
Their three remaining road games are at Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota, all teams they beat by varying margins at home this season. None of those teams has a winning record currently in the conference. None of them are guaranteed wins, but the Hoosiers will likely be favored in at least one of those three.
Take four of five at home and one of three on the road, and they're at 18 wins. Win all five at home - including a win against conference front-runner Ohio State - and steal a road win, and I think the Hoosiers' NCAA prospects look pretty good, though nowhere near guaranteed.
There are a few things standing in their way, the least of which is Northwestern. This and Wisconsin are games the Hoosiers simply can't lose if they want to be in the tournament mix come March.
Northwestern is led by a 6-foot-5 freshman, Amy Jaeschke, who grew up in Willmette, Ill., just miles from the Northwestern campus. The Big Ten's Web site did a good story on the All-American's reasons for turning away programs like Ohio State and Duke for the Wildcats that you can read here.
She and her teammates will look to play spoiler and get a little revenge tomorrow, after the Hoosiers opened the conference schedule with an 84-53 drubbing of Northwestern in Evanston.
So what do you think? Do the Hoosiers have a realistic tournament shot? Am I just looking at the world through cream and crimson eyelids, or could IU be playing in the NCAA Tournament come March?
