When it comes to ranking teams in the absence of head-to-head matchups, pollsters often have to rely on what is known as the eye test.
This season, I worry the collective perception of the college football world is slightly skewed. Considering many schools have played half as many games as others at stadiums of varying capacity, it’s easy to adopt 2020 vision — a point of view blurred by the strangeness of our year.
If you are an IU football fan who wants to believe your favorite squad is a totally legitimate contender, please, please do not look at the Hoosiers' stats. In fact, anything remotely concrete or numerical shouldn’t occupy any space in your sweet, unspoiled mind.
But for the rest of us who have dared to glimpse at box scores or analytics, it isn’t quite so easy to convince ourselves that IU is truly deserving of its top 15 ranking and national acclaim.
To say there are only 12 teams that could reliably beat the Hoosiers is a bigger reach than sophomore quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s infamous — maybe not actually valid — game-winning score against Penn State.
Therefore, it’s important to revisit the eye chart and update our prescription to a more realistic pair of lenses.
Let’s begin with the offense.
It's truly a joy to watch Penix play quarterback. Gaze in awe as he jettisons the ball above defenders’ heads. Marvel as it whistles past a cornerback’s outstretched arms. Exhale in disappointment as it ricochets off its receiver’s hands.
Okay, so Penix’s numbers haven’t been amazing. He sits at 58th in the nation in passing efficiency with a 58% completion rate. Obviously, diving headfirst into a delayed schedule after limited practice is going to involve its growing pains, but I think IU’s fanbase expected more pizzazz.
Frankly, the entirety of the Hoosier offense has looked a bit suspect in 2020. Junior running back Stevie Scott III has yet to return to his freshman form, leaving IU with the least productive running game in the Big Ten.
The obvious culprit here is the offensive line, whose most grievous crime thus far has been a trio of rough sacks surrendered in week one against Penn State. I can’t fault anyone for letting Nittany Lion super star Shaka Toney blow by, but Penix can only take so much abuse. The Hoosiers’ signal caller has never gone more than three consecutive games without an injury, so I’d rather not see his spine turned to gelatin on a blindside hit.
All this being said, there is still substantial reason for optimism in Bloomington.
Penn State might not be the goliath we first thought, but it’s almost unheard of for IU to topple a program with such a clear talent disparity. Good teams take advantage of better team’s mistakes, and the Hoosiers had a buffet from which to choose.
Saturday may have begun with a shoddy first quarter at Rutgers, but 45 minutes of skilled offense is better than the five minutes IU put forth in week one.
Furthermore, the Hoosier secondary is quickly emerging as one of the best in the conference. Provided its linebackers can clamp down on scrambling quarterbacks before they can run wild like something out of a Benny Hill skit, IU’s defense could be a dominant force.
We will have a better idea of IU’s true ability when it faces off against Michigan on Saturday and Michigan State on Nov. 14. Getting lucky — and make no mistake, there was a lot of luck involved in that Penn State victory — is one thing, but stringing together a sequence of impressive wins is another entirely.
Perhaps evaluating a team in 2020 isn’t as simple as reading descending lines of increasingly tiny text. Suddenly, the eye chart can rearrange its letters at will, has a pair of legs to run around on and is constantly trying to pepper spray us in the face. Regardless, I’ll keep squinting for signs of the football school I know IU is destined to become.
Watching the Hoosiers has led to plenty of heartbreak in my lifetime, but this season I’m willing to keep my eyes peeled and brace for the tears.
