Come mid-July, there may not be a clear Republican presidential nominee. Donald Trump needs around 500 more delegates, and Ted Cruz seems to be picking up steam ahead of the key remaining contests. John Kasich languishes behind in third.
The Indiana primary election May 3 could prove to be a crucial contest for the candidates. With 59 delegates up for grabs, Trump will want to secure as many as he can to avoid a convention.
Trump is likely to win high delegate states like New York and California. However, he may not get to the 1,237 delegates needed to take the Republican nomination outright.
This would lead to a contested or brokered convention at the Republican Nation Convention, which would mean the 2,490 delegates would possibly go through several rounds of voting to come to a nominee. If this were to be the case, nobody will know what will happen until the voting is over.
First, the delegates the states send to the convention are associated with a certain candidate. If there is no consensus on a candidate, the delegates become unbound according to the state’s GOP voting rules. Because there are delegates from 56 states and territories, it becomes very hard to predict any single outcome.
Next, the official rules for the convention haven’t been written yet. This will significantly affect proceedings and the eventual outcome.
Although the brokered convention is far from ideal, it may be a necessary evil. The lack of a nominee going in will pose more questions than answers for the media and electorate. The convention will appear nebulous to many voters and individuals who aren’t schooled in American politics. A clean and fluid process will be beneficial for all parties.
I do think the outcome of a brokered convention would be extremely difficult to predict at this point.
Trump, who will surely be the delegate leader heading into the convention, will feel that he has a legitimate claim, as will Cruz.
Kasich, though he is mathematically eliminated from contention to win the nomination outright, will also be in play.
I do not feel a candidate will arise from outside the previous field of 17 nominees, with only a few having a legitimate chance to succeed anyway. Names like Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio — who has more delegates than Kasich — and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan have been suggested, but I highly doubt these contingencies will occur.
If this were to happen, the millions of voters across the entire primary season would feel disenfranchised. The Republican Party could face serious kickback, which they will want to avoid.
I will certainly be following closely. The brokered convention could be a turning point for the Republican Party, with the circus that has accompanied this election cycle.
The sooner the GOP consolidates behind a single nominee, the quicker it can focus on defeating on the eventual Democrat candidate.
staranyi@indiana.edu
