So, the United States men’s national team survived the dreaded “Group of Death” and has advanced to play Belgium in the first knockout stage of the World Cup.
Most of the world — for good reason, mind you — did not believe the U.S. had much of a chance to get out of the group stage.
But after late game-winning heroics, a heartbreaking tie and a loss that was really a win against Germany, the Americans find themselves in the knockout stage in consecutive World Cups for the first time in U.S. history.
With the Belgians on the way and a U.S. roster riddled with injury, the natural question is: can the Americans actually win?
Of course they can.
And I believe they will.
The Belgians pose an interesting test to the U.S. The young and talented Group H winners went into the World Cup ranked No. 11 by FIFA. That was two spots ahead of the U.S., and basically walked through the Group stage without much turmoil.
Belgium simply crushed the U.S., 4-2, in a friendly match just two months ago. Granted, that was a very different American team.
Romelu Lukaku gave the Americans fits, blowing past defenders with his speed. He and the rest of the Red Devils are unlikely to be stopped, but the U.S. should aim to contain and limit the youthful attack.
Key for the U.S. is going to be its offense, or rather, merely being able to string together an offensive attack.
The Americans registered just 72 attacks during three group-stage games, according to FIFA statistics. That ranked them No. 31 out of 32 teams, bettering only Costa Rica’s 69.
Part of this, of course, can be blamed on the absence of Jozy Altidore who strained his hamstring in the U.S. opener. Without Altidore, the U.S. has looked lost with the ball, rarely ?imposing any sort of threat or possession.
Goals could be at a premium against a Belgium team that only allowed one goal during the group stage.
Belgium was the field’s worst in terms of goals conceded from the wings, allowing 75 percent of scores to come from the wingers during qualifying.
This puts added emphasis on Graham Zusi if the U.S. is going to find the back of the nylon.
Goal-scoring threat Altidore is expected to return to the lineup against Belgium, but it is hard to predict how healthy he will be.
Regardless, the Americans need to do a better job of controlling possession on offense to have an opportunity to create on-set pieces and transition opportunities.
The U.S. has averaged possession just 42 percent of the time in its games thus far. That puts a huge strain on goalkeeper Tim Howard and an already ?questionable defensive back line.
The U.S. will be an underdog when they take the pitch alongside the Belgians. Bloomberg Sports projects the U.S. has only a 26 percent chance of ?advancing.
That’s a familiar role for the Americans.
When groups were drawn and the Americans were put into the vaunted “Group of Death,” you’d have to look far and wide to find someone who believed the U.S. could actually ?advance — but they did.
The same will be true Tuesday. It won’t be pretty. Howard will be forced to make miraculous saves.
Clint Dempsey will need to help carry an at-times abysmal and sluggish offense, and somebody else will need to step up and make one big play to push the U.S. to the top.
But at the end of the day, the U.S. will have just enough to grind out another win.
Prediction: USA defeats Belgium, 2-1 in extra time.
sbeishui@indiana.edu
