Column: Hoosiers will squeak by

Illinois and IU played one of the best games of their respective seasons on Dec. 31.

Illinois squeaked out the win in overtime 83-80. Despite being outplayed in several areas, IU had several chances to win the game.

The Hoosiers shot 41 percent compared to the Illini’s 45 percent. IU, in an eerie foreshadowing of things to come, had 23 turnovers compared to just 10 for Illinois.

Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell went off for 30 points and four assists. But he also had six turnovers.

IU lost, but Hoosier nation was feeling good about hanging tough despite a minus-13 turnover margin. My column title was even, “IU’s loss to Illinois is an encouraging one.”

Fast forward 17 Big Ten games and the conference opener against Illinois would serve as a prelude of what to expect for the rest of the season: a frustrating mix of talent and inconsistency.

IU (17-14, 7-11), the No. 8 seed, will face the No. 9 seed, Illinois (18-13, 7-11), in the first round of the Big Ten tournament in Bankers Life Fieldhouse at noon.

The first game of the tournament features two teams that had disappointing seasons.
IU, despite knocking off four ranked opponents, finished the year 7-11 in the Big Ten.

Illinois also finished the year 7-11 but took a different journey. They had an eight game losing streak earlier in the season but have bounced back to win four of their last five.

They come into Indianapolis play well. And the teams Illinois has beaten lately aren’t scrubs. They’ve knocked off Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan State and Iowa. Its only loss in the last five games was to Big Ten champion Michigan.

Illinois strength is their defense. They rank third in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency according to kenpom.com. They also rank second in the Big Ten in steal percentage and forcing turnovers.

In case you hadn’t noticed, IU has had some trouble holding onto the ball this year. They turn the ball over on 21.9 percent of their possessions in Big Ten play, the worst figure in the conference.

So IU has a lot of turnovers, and Illinois is really good at forcing turnovers. This could spell disaster for the Hoosiers.

The Illini’s offense has been woeful, though. In Big Ten play they average 60 points a game. Only Northwestern has a worse offense. And Illinois has shot 38.1 percent in conference play.

Woof.

The funny thing is — I think IU matches up better with Michigan then Illinois. IU has shown it can run with the high-flying offenses, but they have trouble grinding it out with the offensively challenged teams.

It has been 72 days since that Big Ten opener where both teams scored in the 80s. That won’t happen again.

Expect a grind-it-out type of affair. First one to 60 wins.

IU squeaks by the Illini, and moves onto play Michigan on Friday. It won’t be pretty, but Illinois’ offense isn’t good enough to score enough points on the Hoosiers. Although IU might have 20-plus turnovers, Hoosier Nation will celebrate in Indianapolis.

Prediction: IU 62, Illinois 58

Evan Hoopfer is 13-8 in predictions this year.

ehoopfer@indiana.edu